Bitcoin returns to $100,000 is still a popular target for 2026 across the market, but one bearish outlook says this move will become less realistic moving forward price action weakens below the $80,000 price point.
This bearish outlook came from a crypto analyst known as Alex Mason on the social media platform
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Bitcoin’s rising channel may have been a trap
Bitcoin hasn’t traded above $100,000 in 2026 and with the calendar almost halfway through the year, the time frame for a recovery above six figures. shrinks quickly. The price action of the past two months has instead been defined by a rising channel, with Bitcoin gradually forming higher highs and higher lows from the February low just above $60,000. The upper limit has acted as resistance several times, while the green lower trendline has served as the main support to keep the recovery alive.
However, that same channel points to one bearish argument. A rising channel may look bullish on the surface as the price moves higher, but it can also become a distribution structure as any upward move loses momentum. According to Mason, Bitcoin’s slow rise within the channel has created fake strength, giving retail traders the impression that a breakout to $100,000 is still underway.
The key moment that revealed the fake power was the move to the CME gap of $82,000. Bitcoin hit that CME gap in early May, completed the target, and then was rejected multiple times between May 6 and May 11. This was a textbook trap. for the next leg down.
Bitcoin price chart. Source: @AlexMasonCrypto On X
The probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by 2026
As shown in the chart above, Bitcoin is returning to the lower half of the channel, putting pressure on the green support line. If that support breaks, the structure would no longer resemble a steady recovery and the beginning of a push to a new bottom.
The first phase to a new bottom is a breakdown of the rising channel. From there, the next target is around $70,000, followed by a deeper move going to new lows for $60,000. The chart extends the bearish path even deeper, with a dotted projection moving to as low as $50,000 early July.
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A rally to $100,000 would require confidence, liquidity and a strong follow-through above resistance above $82,000. Bitcoin will also need to regain the 200-day MA around this same level. According to prediction market Kalshi is there is alone a 32% chance that the Bitcoin price will return above $100,000 before January 2027.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView