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The market is at a crucial crossroads as US President Donald Trump has yet to issue a crypto or Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR)-related executive order. Renowned crypto analyst MacroScope (@MacroScope17) has ignited again the debate via X, which asks whether such a reserve is already ‘priced in’ by current market valuations.
Is Trump’s Bitcoin Reserve Priced In?
The concept of an asset being ‘priced in’ refers to the idea that all known information about a potential event is already reflected in the current price. MacroScope draws parallels between the current speculation surrounding an SBR and the period leading up to the introduction of Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs).
“In some ways, the discussion about a US strategic Bitcoin reserve mirrors the ETF debate we saw before,” according to MacroScope shared about
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MacroScope’s analysis is rooted in its observations before the advent of Bitcoin ETFs. During that time, he claimed that ETFs would catalyze a new wave of investment by making Bitcoin more accessible to a wider range of investors. “I posted the below on BTC 44k a few days before the ETFs started trading,” he recalls.
Indeed, the introduction of ETFs has facilitated access to Bitcoin, attracting significant institutional and private interest. MacroScope believes that a similar, albeit more impactful, scenario could unfold with an SBR. Unlike ETFs, which primarily improve liquidity and accessibility, an SBR would signal strong government support for Bitcoin.
According to the analyst, a Bitcoin reserve would “increase the pool of participants, especially in terms of available capital.” This would have major global consequences. [It] would be due to the arms race mentality that would develop. […] The ETFs impacted the price of Bitcoin through easier access. A US strategic reserve will influence the price through global psychology and urgency,” he added.
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MacroScope referenced a post from last year to further its argument: “It’s impossible for anything to be ‘priced in’ when a huge amount of capital literally doesn’t have access yet. Yes, currently eligible speculators and their available capital can purchase in advance of an event. But that is the only thing that makes ‘pricing in’ possible when the group of participants is about to expand enormously.’
Nick Moran, founder and CEO of Space Race Energy, responded enthusiastically to MacroScope’s claims. “Macroscope, you’re all in on it,” Moran confirmed. She elaborated on the likelihood of a “massive SBR” under a potential “Trump 2.0” administration, suggesting such a move would set a precedent for other countries to follow.
Political support, although still in its infancy, seems promising. Senator Cynthia Lummis, a prominent pro-Bitcoin voice on Capitol Hill and author of the Bitcoin Act, recently stated in a podcast: “Wouldn’t it be nice if the US buys Bitcoin and it scares China and Russia into going Bitcoin? buy? and we have an arms race about Bitcoin instead of weapons.”
Adding to the optimism, David Bailey, CEO of BTC Inc., shared. and a key advisor to Trump’s campaign on crypto assets, his expectations for X following President Trump’s pardon of Ross Ulbricht. “I still expect special Bitcoin+crypto EOs in the coming days,” Bailey said, referring to upcoming executive orders that could formalize the creation of an SBR. He further projected, “I also fully expect the President to deliver on the SBR in his first 100 days.”
At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $102,295.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com