While the future of Bitcoin government bonds hangs in the balance ahead of the MSCI index exclusion review, one key player has remained worryingly silent: Metaplanet.
The fourth largest BTC The Japan-based treasury company has not made a single purchase since the market crisis began in October.
Source: CryptoQuant
The final bid of 2,744 BTC was made on September 29, with the company increasing its total holdings to 30,823 BTC. At the time, BTC was trading at $112,000. It continued and soon reached a new all-time high above $126k. However, the fourth quarter defeat sent it down more than 30% to $89,000 at the time of writing.
This provided another discount for long-term players such as Strategy and Metaplanet. However, Metaplanet did not jump to buy the dip.
Strange, right? You would expect that the best, visionary BTC treasury companies would jump on the discount window to gain more exposure.
But Metaplanet’s recent reluctance looks somewhat nuanced.
Metaplanet’s mNAV crisis
First the mNAV (market value to net asset value), a multiple that tracks enterprise value relative to BTC holdings, collapsed below 1x – limiting the capacity to raise capital for new purchases.
Source: Metaplanet
In fact, at the end of October, the company announced a $500 million line of credit for a share buyback program to boost mNAV.
The plan would extend until October 2026. Specifically on December 5 secured $50 million as part of the credit line for stock buybacks and BTC purchases.
At the time of writing, mNAV stood at 1.01x – down from a record low of 0.93x.
However, the assessment of the exclusion from the MSCI index, which affects Strategy, also extends to Metaplanet. The latter was included in MSCI Japan in February, and an exclusion could lead to a sell-off.
Metaplanet’s BTC Loss and 2026 Plans
Unlike Strategy, Metaplanet’s BTC shares were facing unrealized losses of over half a billion at the time of writing.
Source: CryptoQuant (Metaplanet’s unrealized PnL)
However, with only $304 million in outstanding debt, the company had 9x BTC assets to meet obligations at the BTC price at the time of writing.
That said, it remains to be seen whether it will also drop the ‘never sell BTC’ narrative. Especially after Strategy confirmed a potential BTC dump if MSTR’s mNAV fell below 1x.
Metaplanet started its BTC plan in April 2024 with only 97 coins at that time. In less than two years, it acquired more than 30,000 BTC – now worth $2.75 billion. This was the goal for 2025.
By 2026, the company had plans to scale its holdings to 100,000 BTC and double that to 210,000 BTC by 2027. However, it is unclear whether it will keep the promise or not.
Meanwhile, the stock (MTPLF) rose 28% year-over-year (YoY), while BTC fell 11% at the time of writing. In the second half of 2025 alone, MTPLF fell 79% from $13 to $2.43. BTC lost 16% of its value during the same period, while trading on the charts at $89,000.
Final thoughts
- Metaplanet has been quiet for the past two months, but could soon announce another BTC purchase after a recent $50 million credit limit.
- The company has already achieved its goal of 30,000 BTC ownership by 2025, and the company is now targeting 100,000 BTC by 2026.