Interesting observations have been made about the relationship between the realized prices of the short-term holder (STH) and the long-term holder (LTH). This is one pattern that repeats itself in every major cycle.
The bear market tends to end when the price realized by STH falls below the LTH line, which means complete capitulation and a move towards real accumulation.
The bull market starts when STH rises above again and shows that capital returns with confidence.
Source: Alpharactal
Over the years, this crossover has always marked the turning point. And right now, Bitcoin is approaching that zone again. The market may be closer to innovation than it seems.
However, a calm market is not weak
Google searches for crypto have fallen to a multi-year low, and even interest in major platforms like CoinMarketCap and CoinGecko has cooled.
This kind of social silence has led to bear phases so far. However, it is also when the best opportunities arise, long before the crowds return.
Source: Alpharactal
Despite the reduced attention, the underlying market looks stronger, not weaker. Bitcoin has absorbed approximately $732 billion in new capital this cycle, while realized one-year volatility has almost halved.
Source: Glassnode
In other words, the market is now more stable and backed by institutional hands rather than retail.
Sentiment is turning
As prices recover (Bitcoin returns to $93K and Ethereum [ETH] above $3,000 at the time of writing), social sentiment has once again turned sharply.
Santiment data shows the crowd switches between fear and greed in real time: blue spikes indicate fear (often just before prices rise), while red spikes reflect greed (usually before markets cool).
Source: Santiment
The latest uptick has pushed sentiment back toward greed, which may be causing traders to get ahead of themselves.
But all in all it looks more like the first signs of a thaw. The crypto winter is not over yet… but the ice is starting to break.
Final thoughts
- Bitcoin’s next big cycle signal is approaching and the final phase of the bear market may already be underway.
- Volatility is easing and $732 billion of new capital has been absorbed.