Bitcoin [BTC] was downstairs 3.4% in the past 24 hours, with $104.38 million in liquidations. Of this, $91.66 million The positions were valued long and were forced to close as BTC fell deeper $60k.
In a post on X, influencer CryptoRover shared a piece of technical analysis. The price chart outlined the descending triangle pattern that Bitcoin was in 2021-2022and the RSI also formed a similar structure.
The same pattern repeated itself 2025-2026. It is possible that, just like last time, the bottom of the market will take some time to form before breaking past the triangle pattern.
If the previous cycle repeats itself, a bullish turnaround could occur Q4 2026. We must remember that, as things stand, whale accumulation was underway, but not fast enough to warrant a market turnaround.
Will it be that easy for Bitcoin investors?
Crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr. noted that the long-term Bitcoin holder MVRV has been compressed to 1.24. The measure is the ratio of the market value of long-term holders’ coins compared to their average purchase price.
The current reading of 1.24 is the lowest in three years and shows that the market is approaching historical cycle lows. The MVRV must fall into the “very low” green capitulation zone to provide bottom confirmation.
Moreover, the average cost basis of the long-term holder is $48.4k. A price drop below this level will, on average, flood this cohort and signal capitulation from even the most hardcore holders.
Bitcoin is on track with the four-year cycle
Founder and CEO of Into The CryptoVerse, Benjamin Cohen, used the 200-week moving average to emphasize that the 4 years cycle was well on schedule.
In June 2022 and 2026, this moving average was broken downwards, creating a remarkable similarity between the cycles.
The rising long/short ratio implied that more traders were going long on the derivatives market than were positioned short. “This excessive long exposure is one of the main reasons behind the recent sell-off,” Alphractal CEO Joao Wedson wrote.
It implied that, like the wave of prolonged liquidations in the first week of June, prolonged pressure could emerge again in the coming days and weeks.
Final summary
- Bitcoin price action has crossed the 200-week moving average and could fall further in the coming months.
- The market was approaching an all-time low compared to previous cycles, but not quite there yet.