- Bitcoin rose to $64,000, but the absence of the US market raises concerns about the sustainability of the rally.
- Statistics show a decline in Bitcoin Open Interest and retail activity, indicating potential caution for investors.
The global crypto market has experienced a significant boost in recent days, surging over $60 billion in valuation.
This increase comes as the price of Bitcoin rose again to the $64,000 mark, rekindling optimism among investors.
While this rally has captured the attention of many, some analysts are questioning the sustainability of this growth, noting certain unusual trends behind the scenes.
Market driven by Asian capital, not American buyers?
A CryptoQuant analyst, who goes by the pseudonym BQYoutube, recently highlighted a critical observation on the CryptoQuant QuickTake platform.
In one after with the title “We’re going up. But Coinbase Ain’t Buying’, the analyst pointed out that the US market, represented by Coinbase, has not participated in the recent rally.
BQYoutube noted that while the price of Bitcoin rose, Coinbase Premium, a benchmark that tracks the difference between Bitcoin prices on Coinbase and other exchanges, fell into negative territory.
This decline in Coinbase Premium indicates that the US market may not be as enthusiastic about the rally, potentially weakening the overall bullish sentiment.
Source: CryptoQuant
One of the main reasons behind Bitcoin’s recent rally could be attributed to capital flows from Asia, according to BQYoutube. The analyst suggested that China’s interest rate cut and Asian capital inflows could push up prices.
However, this rally lacks full support without significant American participation.
The US market has historically played a crucial role in sustaining long-term Bitcoin price gains, and its absence could indicate potential vulnerabilities in the current price movement.
BQYoutube warned that the rally could be risky if the US market remains unengaged, as continued price momentum often depends on broader global participation.
Retail interest in Bitcoin is recovering slightly
Beyond these observations, it’s essential to look at Bitcoin’s key on-chain metrics to understand the broader picture.
Facts from Coinglass shows a decline in Bitcoin’s Open Interest, which refers to the total number of outstanding derivative contracts.
Source: Coinglass
This metric is down 0.83%, bringing its value to $33.25 billion.
Similarly, Bitcoin’s Open Interest volume, which reflects the total number of transactions, has also seen a sharp decline of 31.04%, to $45.49 billion at the time of writing.
These declines could indicate that traders were less optimistic about the asset’s future movement in the short term.
Another important metric to monitor is Bitcoin’s active addresses, which serve as a key indicator of retail interest.
Data from Glassnode revealed a substantial decline in the number of active Bitcoin addresses in recent months, especially after a peak of 839,000 on August 30.
Source: Glassnode
This decline saw the number of active addresses drop to around 600,000 at the end of September, reflecting a decline in retail interest.
However, recent data has pointed to a small recovery, with active addresses rising back above 700,000 in recent days.
Read Bitcoin’s [BTC] Price forecast 2024–2025
While the current rally has generated excitement, the lack of US participation and declining open interest could pose challenges to Bitcoin’s short-term prospects.
However, the recovery of private interest could indicate renewed confidence in the market.