Journalist
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Disclaimer: The information presented does not constitute financial, investment, trading or other advice and is solely the opinion of the author.
- FIL has breached the $3.2 short-term support.
- Open interest rates have fluctuated in recent days.
Filecoin [FIL] was ready for a short-term expansion, waiting for a clear Bitcoin [BTC] direction. The late August recovery was forced to reverse to $3.56. The decline breached a key near-term support at USD 3.2, but eased off a weekly bullish order block (OB).
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Will the bulls see a delay?
Source: FIL/USDT on TradingView
The market structure on the 4-hour chart was bearish after falling below the previous low and support at USD 3.2. A bullish bias can only suffice if FIL climbs above USD 3.56.
In the meantime, FIL consolidated recent losses above $3.1. The plunge subsided at a weekly bullish order block (OB) of $2.68 – $3.12 (cyan).
A recovery would be imminent if the weekly candlestick closes above USD 3.2 Bitcoin [BTC] recovers recent losses. Moving north, the main resistance levels are USD 3.56 and USD 3.80.
Alternatively, the narrow short-term margin between $3.1 – $3.2 could expand in the coming hours/days if BTC stays within the low $25,000 range.
Meanwhile, the RSI attempted to recover from the oversold zone, but failed to cross the 50 mark, illustrating subdued buying pressure. But the CMF broke above zero, suggesting that capital inflows improved slightly.
Open interest rates wavered
Source: Coinglass
For the past few days, FIL’s faltering Open Interest (OI) rates have signaled likely near-term bandwidth expansion. The stat has hovered below $70 million in recent days, suggesting that demand for FIL has been faltering over the same period.
How many are 1Worth 10,100 FILs today?
By the way, FIL’s OI weighted financing rate fluctuated in September, while volume in the derivatives market plummeted. The conclusion from above is neutral to negative sentiment in the short term.
But sentiment could turn quickly, especially if BTC reclaims $26,000 and surges forward. So tracking the BTC price is critical.