Bitcoin [BTC] is holding strong, but hasn’t quite come to the party yet. While the Japanese stock market reached record highs, Bitcoin remained above the key $90,000 level.
At the same time, short-term holders (STHs) have started selling, with prices trading below their average costs.
The next move could be as dependent on the macro news that traders are now waiting for as it is on the pace.
BTC lasts for life
At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $92K, after a pullback earlier this week. The recovery from the $90K zone means buyers are still defending key levels, even at a slowing pace.
Source: TradingView
The RSI showed strength without too much optimism, while rising volume on the recent green candles means selective buying. The MACD was positive but leveling off, so BTC is consolidating.
The market will need a clear catalyst to see which way it will go.
The Japanese risk rally is gaining strength
Japanese shares rose to record levels as traders returned from a holiday and rushed to catch up with Wall Street.
The Nikkei 225 rose as much as 3.6%, an ATH of 53,814.79, while the broader Topix index rose 2.4% to a record 3,599.31.
Hopes that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi could call early elections kept expectations of continued budget support alive.
A weaker yen also boosted export-heavy sectors, with chipmakers and automakers posting leading gains as 209 of Nikkei’s 225 stocks finished in the green.
STHs are impatient
Source: Alpharactal
They’ve turned around in net sell mode, where the short-term holder’s 30-day net position change is in negative territory.
At the same time, Bitcoin is trading below the STH Realized Price of $98,450, leaving recent buyers sitting on unrealized losses.
Source: Alpharactal
This usually shakes out awkward newcomers, who are more likely to sell during uncertainty. While BTC holds firm, short-term pressure remains. A macro shock could decide whether this range holds… or breaks.
Final thoughts
- Bitcoin holds over $92,000, but STH selling means the pressure is on.
- With Japan’s Nikkei up 3.6% to record highs, macroeconomic headlines could determine BTC’s fate.