Months ago, a prominent crypto analyst outlined a precise window where the Bitcoin price could enter a violent downward phase. At the time, the projection seemed extreme. Now that price behavior is starting to adapt to that roadmap, the analyst has released a much more comprehensive update – one that not only amplifies the emergency call but also maps out what comes before and after the next big pivot.
Bitcoin Price Multicycle Model Signals a Structural Reset
In the update shared at About the annual time frameBitcoin is in what he calls an extreme risk zone ahead of an expected pivot around February 2. The structure is translated to the left with distributive price action – a formation related to late cycle weakness.
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He compares the current arrangement with an earlier harmonic phase in which Bitcoin fell about 50% from its all-time high before hitting the same pivot window. That drop fueled a recovery of about 40% but failed to hit a new all-time high, suggesting the February reversal could bring relief rather than expansion. He also identifies a macro risk period from April to September 2026.
As for the monthly cycle, the analyst marks a decisive turning point around December 22. Historical drops in comparable harmonics were 56%, 77% and 34% depending on cycle context. The 77% drop occurred during a bear market, while the 34% retracement marked a mid-bull cycle. Upwards rebounds ranged between 140% and 375%, with a later expansion of 158%, showing that monthly harmonics often harbor the sharpest price dislocations.
On the weekly time frameA shorter-term reversal will appear around November 19. Previous pullbacks have ranged from 20% to 34%, followed by upward expansions of 99%, 96%, 95%, 127% and 69%, providing the tactical signals traders can rely on for short-term adjustments within the broader trend.
What’s more: refined crash targets and the bottom window
In addition to confirming the original crash call, the analyst refines the roadmap downward by synchronizing all three cycles. When the harmonics align, volatility and pivot significance increase. While the full decline is 20%–77%, it narrows the likely decline to 34%–55% from the all-time high. deeper bear market conditions have not yet been confirmed.
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The weekly pivot in November seems too early for one macro soil, with higher time pressure likely the real pivot will come in January. A dead-cat bounce in late November is possible before further downsides occur. Key levels: $90,000 (~30% down) for November, $72,000 (~43% below high) for January, with further support at $45,000 and $28,000 as selling increases.
The analyst remains cautiousnoting that the last comparable annual harmonic has risen 40% without surpassing the all-time high, with similar limits expected ahead of the May to September 2026 risk window. However, while his four-month-old crash call held, he believes Bitcoin’s path is far from over: Investors should prepare for further downsides and a multi-phase recovery that will shape the next macro cycle.
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com