Bitcoin’s progress over the past four weeks is colliding with a derivatives market that still appears positioned for weakness. Analysts who track Binance funding and futures fundamentals say traders continue to short even as BTC moves higher, creating what CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost described via X as a “phase of disbelief” rather than a pure bullish reset.
That difference matters because it suggests the rally is unfolding against persistent skepticism, not broad conviction. In crypto, this kind of setup can work both ways: it can signal a fragile market structure, but it can also provide fuel if bearish positioning is forced to disappear.
Darkfost pointed to the 30-day cumulative evolution of Binance funding rates as the clearest sign that the market is still out of sync with the price. “We’ve been hearing a lot about funding rates lately as they remain negative even as Bitcoin continues to rise,” he wrote.
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“This chart provides a different perspective than is usually observed. It shows the cumulative evolution of funding rates on Binance over a 30-day period, making it easier to clearly identify when funding has entered a sustained negative trend.”
His comparison was to late 2022, when Bitcoin started to emerge from the bear market. At that time, Binance’s funding rates continued to decline, reaching a low of -7% on a 30-day cumulative basis. Today, the same indicator is around -4.5%, which he says shows how aggressively traders have continued to bet against this move in recent months.
Darkfost’s argument is not simply that funding is negative, but that the continued negativity is a reflection of a market still trying to reduce price strength. “Each time such a strong consensus has formed, it has instead helped create a bottom and fueled the rally that has begun to develop,” he said. “As I mentioned a few days ago, the market has entered a phase of disbelief, where traders still prefer to fight the trend rather than follow it.”
Bitcoin derivatives market in a regime of caution
On-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr. approached the same background from a more defensive angle. In its April 23 market remarkHe argued that Bitcoin’s derivatives structure is “fast losing its bullish structure” as the short-term futures premium over the spot market nearly disappears. The seven-day SMA fell from +0.465% to +0.054% in just four days, while the 7DMA financing rate remained negative at -0.00945%.
For Adler, the message is simple: the market is no longer willing to pay for long leverage. “Basic 7D SMA is sharply compressed and near zero, showing that the futures premium over spot has almost disappeared,” he wrote.
“This isn’t just a local cooldown – it’s almost a complete disappearance of the futures premium over spot. Meanwhile, the 30D SMA remains noticeably higher, around +0.41%, meaning the near-term derivative structure has deteriorated much faster than the medium-term norm.”
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He made a similar point about financing. “What counts is not just the negative reading itself, but also its persistence,” Adler said. “This is not a one-time spike or an hour-long panic divergence. This is a steady accumulation of bearish positioning, with the market continuing to pay for short positions.”
All told, the two analysts read the same data through slightly different lenses. Darkfost sees disbelief as a potentially constructive condition for the continued rally, especially if the consensus remains heavily skewed to price. Adler sees a market that has lost its bullish premium and is moving to a more cautious regime unless fundamentals and funding recover.
At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $77,836.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com