As we approach the end of the first quarter of 2026, one crypto market watcher shares his bearish outlook for XRP, warning that the altcoin’s correction may not be over yet and a deeper pullback looms in the coming months.
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XRP risks a 60% correction in the second quarter
On Tuesday, XRP continued to move sideways, hovering between $1.30 and $1.35 for the fifth day in a row. The cryptocurrency has been trading between two crucial levels, $1.21 and $1.55, for almost two months.
Markey Observer More Crypto Online marked that there has been no major price action since the early February correction as the altcoin has failed to break out of its local range.
However, he noted that XRP has maintained the lower end of this key range despite market volatility, adding that it is a crucial support zone and decision area for the cryptocurrency. According to the analysis, the next key step will determine the structure and “determine whether a more bullish scenario remains valid or whether a deeper correction takes place.”
He explained that XRP’s current structure suggests a more bearish scenario is likely to play out in the short to medium term, with a “more complex ABC structure” potentially unfolding unless the market “really starts an impulse rally.”
In this scenario, the cryptocurrency could bounce towards a crucial resistance area, between $1.76 and $2.86, for the B wave in the coming weeks, before the price continues to retreat to lower levels for Wave C.
This key resistance area requires close attention, the analyst asserted, as there is a possibility of a rebound if the February lows hold. He concluded: “If it is a corrective move to the upside, which would be the current expectation, (…) we could see a slight rebound in the second quarter, (…) and then we could see a C-wave to the downside perhaps in the late second or early third quarter.”
According to the chart, this correction could locate XRP’s bottom between the $0.98 and $0.48 levels, which would represent a 30% to 60% drop from current levels.
Early Q2 relief rally coming?
Meanwhile, Chard Nerd shared something similar prospectsThis confirms that XRP could rise to $1.80-$2.00 in the coming months. The analyst explained that the altcoin could see a relief rally between April and May, which could mark a very critical turning point based on its past performance.
After peaking in previous cycles, the altcoin has notably fallen to retest the 200-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) before seeing a relief rally towards the 20 and 50 EMAs. This was followed by a rejection and a drop to the bear market low.
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The market observer said he had expected the relief rally to happen sooner, but noted that the cryptocurrency has been consolidating around the 200 EMA for weeks. This could indicate that the retest of this indicator could take longer than in the previous cycle and that the 20 and 50 EMA retests could take place later.
“XRP is hovering around the 200-week EMA. There have been big relief rallies that we have seen in the past, which means we could get there, but it will likely be followed by a new low later in the year (…) between the $0.90 to $0.70 region. (…) This is where we are trying to get to before we continue to expand,” he concluded.
Featured image from Unsplash.com, chart from TradingView.com