Every few years, a map pattern appears in the Bitcoin market that is attracting serious attention because it has repeated itself with near mechanical consistency in every major US midterm election cycle since Bitcoin first started trading.
This is evident from the price history of Bitcoin that these election year corrections often happen towards the end of major bull cycles before eventually giving way to another powerful expansion phase. With the 2026 interim cycle underway and Bitcoin already down more than 50% from its all-time high, the coming months should both involve a deeper correction and a a much bigger long-term rally.
Bitcoin’s history with medium-term election years
A recent chart analysis, shared by crypto analyst Crypto Patel on the social media platform Notably, Bitcoin posted steep losses in each of the three completed midterm election years on record.
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The first example appeared in 2014, when Bitcoin fell about 86% from its previous all-time high during the election year period. A similar development took place in 2018, when Bitcoin’s price action recorded another deep bear market, with Bitcoin falling approximately 84% from its peak.
The pattern reappeared in 2022, when Bitcoin fell approximately 77% from the previous cycle high. Each of these corrections occurred around the same phase of the four-year market cycle that coincided with the US midterm elections. As the chart below shows, each of the previous cycles bottomed out one or two months after the midterm elections.
Bitcoin price chart. Source: @CryptoPatel on X
What the 2026 cycle could mean for Bitcoin
Bitcoin reached its most recent peak in October 2025, and the price action has since entered a notable correction phase. Price data shows that Bitcoin is currently trading around $73,600, putting it about 42% below that all-time high. The lowest point of the The decline so far occurred in February, when Bitcoin briefly fell to around $63,000, marking a correction of around 52% from the peak.
If the historical pattern of the election cycle repeats itself in a similar manner, Bitcoin’s price could experience one last phase of downside development before the start of the next long-term recovery phase.
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Analyst Crypto Patel’s projection places a potential bottom in the $35,000 to $40,000 range, possibly between November 2026 and February 2027. The more consequential argument in Crypto Patel’s analysis is not the expected decline, but what could follow the bottom.
A look at the price action following previous US midterm election years shows that Bitcoin registered an average rally of about 54% before a small setback. This temporary pullback was later followed by a stronger rally that took the price to new highs ahead of the next election cycle. Based on this historical streak, the next big move after the 2026 midterm elections could ultimately carry Bitcoin price above $400,000 in the long run.
Featured image of Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com