Between October 2025 and January 2026 Bitcoin [BTC] ETF outflows accelerated, rising from about $3 billion to nearly $6 billion.
Traders took profits near the November 2025 ATH, triggering panic selling as the price fell below the ETF’s realized level around $86,000. As a result, selling pressure intensified and ETF outflows accelerated.
Most post-ATH inflows have turned into losses, leading to intensified redemptions, especially during periods of tight liquidity. However, the price action has shown a notable deviation from these outflows.
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Bitcoin fell from almost $120,000 but stabilized in the $85,000 – $90,000 range. This was a much smaller step compared to the size of capital outflows from ETFs.
This resilience suggests that spot demand outside of ETFs has absorbed much of the selling pressure.
Stabilization may come from the recent flattening of ETF flows in late December 2025 and early January 2026, reducing forced selling.
A broader solution lies in deeper liquidity and renewed long-term inflows. As a result, holding prices above the ETF’s realized level can restore confidence and gradually delay further redemptions.
Short-term selling pressure is increasing!
Market stress often manifests itself through short-term participants first, and Bitcoin is now entering such a phase. Recent buyers are under increasing pressure as prices are below their collective cost base.
At the time of writing, the Realized Short-Term Holder Price was approximately $98,000, while the spot price was hovering around $91.5,000.
This gap leaves many recent market entrants at a loss, increasing their sensitivity to further downside risk.
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At the same time, the short-term holder’s 30-day net position change has turned negative, with approximately -99,000 BTC distributed.
This shift indicates net selling rather than accumulation. Historically, similar behavior has preceded short-term corrections, with weaker hands exiting during periods of uncertainty.
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If the price remains below the realized level, selling pressure may increase and prolong the price decline.
However, this dynamic does not guarantee a bearish outcome. Previous cycles show that continued capitulation of short-term holders can also mark exhaustion phases.
Once sales slow, the price often stabilizes and stronger demand picks up. A recovery of the price realized would relieve the pressure and restore confidence.
Meanwhile, long-term holder behavior remains relatively stable, supporting the broader structure. The downside risk therefore remains, but the upward recovery remains plausible if demand picks up again.
Can bulls regain a MAJOR technical level?
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading around $91,800, with support remaining above the $90,015 demand zone after the sharp collapse between November and December.
ETF outflows caused short-term pain for holders, pushing the price below previous support at around $95,300 and $99,600, which now acts as overhead resistance.
Source: TradingView
Buyers continue to defend the $85,000-$90,000 range, indicating absorption rather than capitulation.
While momentum remains fragile, higher lows are forming above the highlighted support zone. To challenge the current distribution structure, bulls need to regain the $95,300 level.
Overall, investors should look for a confirmed move back above $95,000. Failure to do so could lead to a deeper correction towards $85,000.
Final thoughts
- ETF outflows and selling to short-term holders have intensified, but Bitcoin continues to stabilize between $85,000 and $90,000, indicating that strong spot market demand is absorbing much of the selling pressure.
- Confidence hinges on recovering $95,000 as a breakout signals recovery, while rejection risks a drop to $85,000.