XRP is approaching what market commentator Will Taylor describes as a critical technical turning point, with a declining bearish wedge, oversold weekly momentum, and a lopsided liquidation profile all pointing to a market that has all but exhausted the downtrend.
That’s the gist of XRP in The Weekly Insight – Week 188, in which Taylor argued that while crypto could still see a final flush lower, XRP is already trading in a zone that has historically been on par with major lows.
XRP may be close to a low
Taylor placed the XRP setup against a broader macro backdrop that remains fragile but, in his view, not broken. In the same note, he argued that the S&P 500 may have yet to undergo a deeper correction, that volatility could rise further and that crypto altcoins may have “one more small dip” left before a more sustainable bottom emerges. Still, he suggested the market is already close enough to previous cyclical lows that the downside from here on out could be limited relative to the potential uptrend.
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Specifically for XRP, the focus was on structure. Taylor said he has been monitoring “a potential falling wedge or parallel channel” on the weekly chart, with the key question now being whether XRP still needs “another pullback to the bottom of that channel” in the $1.10 region, or whether it can start breaking higher from current levels and regain support on the way up.
He linked that pattern to momentum signals that, as he reads, are starting to look familiar. “This is on the weekly time frame, and the weekly RSI has reached oversold territory, just as it did during the 2022 bear market at all-time lows,” Taylor wrote. “So there are some indicators that we are very close to bottoming out, if not already there.”
That’s important because Taylor doesn’t present XRP as an isolated chart. In the newsletter, he argued that the broader crypto market is already trading near levels that, based on weekly RSI measurements, have historically marked outright bottoms or zones within about 10% to 15% of them. In that context, XRP’s wedge is seen less as a standalone pattern and more as part of a market-wide compression phase that could be approaching resolution.
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The more distinctive part of the XRP thesis came from liquidation data. Taylor wrote that if XRP were to move higher towards $3.60, more than $320 million in short positions would be liquidated. In contrast, a drop to $0.39 would liquidate approximately $130 million in long positions. That imbalance, he says, creates a cleaner incentive for the price to go up instead of down.
“And combining this with the amount of liquidity we can see for XRP, if the price were to rise cumulatively to $3.60, we would be liquidating over $320 million worth of shorts,” he wrote. “But pushing the price to $0.39 would only liquidate about $130 million of longs. From a liquidity perspective, the odds for market makers and exchanges are clearly on the upside.”
That argument rests on the idea that once the current period of macro stress is over, XRP’s positioning could amplify any recovery. Taylor added that open interest “reinforces that view,” suggesting leveraged participation has not yet undermined the bullish setup.
The caveat is timing. Elsewhere in the newsletter, Taylor said he still expects a modest dip in crypto before the market turns completely, and he linked the broader bottoming process to macro developments that could occur over the next four to six weeks. For XRP, two plausible paths remain: a final move towards the lower limit of the wedge, or an earlier breakout that confirms the pattern without a deeper retest.
At the time of writing, XRP was trading at $1.35.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com