It seems the market is starting to focus on the future.
Without a doubt, 2025 has certainly shaken things up. With the year ending in the red for the first time since 2022, Trump’s first year after the election did not go as expected. The result? A huge liquidity crisis.
But if we look at historical cycles, these types of moves have often led to big Bitcoin [BTC] meetings. In this context, with key catalysts piling into 2026, could Bitcoin be in line for a repeat of its 2020-style run?
The Biggest Determinant for Bitcoin in 2025
2025 has raised an important question: do macro factors still determine the price of BTC?
On the upside, quantitative easing, institutional adoption, a crypto boost from Trump, post-halving scarcity, and liquidity injections left BTC in trouble. price discoverywith not one, but four ATHs being tested this year, the latest at $126,000.
On the other hand, the US-China tariff war, MSCI’s investigation of MSTR, and the Chinese ‘metals war’ created noticeable FUD, dragging the BTC-to-silver ratio to a two-year low of 1,104, with Bitcoin clearly underperforming.
Source: TradingView (BTC/SILVER)
Essentially, macro factors continue to shock Bitcoin.
Looking ahead, the hype around 2026 therefore cannot be ignored. As the first quarter kicks off, factors like cryptocurrency deregulation under the Clarity Act, stimulus checks, the end of QT, and record retail participation are all lining up.
With this setup, traders already are calling It’s a big BTC year, with some seeing parallels to 2020, when Bitcoin rose from $10,000 to $69,000 after a 14% dip in 2019. If this trend continues, where could Bitcoin go?
Why BTC’s 2026 design continues to draw comparisons with 2020
At first glance, Bitcoin compares to 2026 2020 lineup could be a stretch.
After all, BTC’s 2020 cycle was defined by the COVID shock, which hit the US economy hard. As a result, GDP contracted by around 3.5%, unemployment rose to 14.7% in April 2020 and inflation fell to just 0.3%.
In response, that macrostress forced aggressive behavior policy action. This included three rounds of stimulus checks totaling roughly $271 billion, in addition to heavy Fed liquidity, with more than $1 trillion in government bonds.
Source: BitBo
The result? Bitcoin launched a rally of over 300% towards $28,000.
Importantly, the move didn’t end there. BTC continued that rally into 2021peaking at $69,000 in April, marking the largest bull cycle in Bitcoin history. In short, macro-driven stimulus clearly fueled BTC’s explosive upside.
Looking ahead to 2026, the setup doesn’t look all that different. From government purchases and stimulus checks to the end of QT and growing regulatory clarity, a 2020-style Bitcoin run therefore doesn’t seem far-fetched.
Final thoughts
- Tight liquidity hurt Bitcoin in 2025, but easing policies, stimulus and clearer regulations could support a recovery in 2026.
- Just as stimulus and easy money powered Bitcoin’s big run in 2020, similar forces could fuel another strong rally today.