Bitcoin [BTC] has had a hard time in recent months. After hitting an all-time high in October 2025, assets are down around 35% as market sentiment continues to weaken and liquidity conditions remain tight.
Bitcoin lags behind as capital turns into precious metals
Bitcoin’s recent performance is in stark contrast to that of precious metals, which have recovered over the same period. While Bitcoin has fallen since October, gold has risen about 25%, pushing its market cap to $34.45 trillion.
Silver saw an even stronger move, rising 103% to reach a market cap of $5.58 trillion.
Precious metals’ strength is largely due to ongoing geopolitical tensions, which have pushed investors toward safe havens.
This shift has reduced appetite for risky assets, especially cryptocurrencies, which continue to face a liquidity drought.
Cathie Wood: Bitcoin’s long-term issue remains intact
Despite Bitcoin’s recent underperformance against precious metals, Cathie Wood, CEO of Ark Invest, believes Bitcoin’s long-term prospects remain intact.
Ark Invest remains a prominent investor in cryptocurrencies and related entities, with its ARKB spot US Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) currently valued at approximately $3.31 billion.
Wood acknowledged gold’s recent strength, but emphasized that Bitcoin continues to outperform over a broader time horizon. From 2022 to date, she noted that Bitcoin is up about 360%, compared to gold’s 170% over the same period.
She added that Bitcoin still has significant upside potential, with its market capitalization projected to grow nearly eightfold from current levels.
“We [Ark Invest] expects Bitcoin to reach a market cap of $16 trillion by 2030.”
According to Wood, Bitcoin’s limited supply growth remains a critical driver of its long-term performance.
“[Bitcoin] supply growth is lower than that of gold. And especially now that the target price is up, miners can go there.”
This dynamic suggests that gold could face a supply expansion if higher prices drive increased mining activity, a scenario fundamentally different from Bitcoin’s fixed supply ceiling of 21 million coins.
Macro conditions could determine Bitcoin’s next stage
Bitcoin continues to correlate with macroeconomic conditions, especially in the United States. Interest rates, inflation and gross domestic product (GDP) remain key factors in determining whether there is liquidity available for investors to spend on risky assets.
During a recent interview, Wood said that both inflation and GDP could produce strong numbers in the coming period.
“We [Ark Invest] think [GDP growth] goes north of 7%, and that is conservative. We think inflation will turn negative.”
Such conditions would likely reduce financing costs and increase investors’ risk appetite, supporting stronger capital flows into risky assets.
Bitcoin has historically benefited from periods of economic expansion in the US, and a similar environment could support its market capitalization to move closer to its $16 trillion projection.
Fed policy keeps the near-term outlook uncertain
Market analysts, Darkfost, caution that current economic data are not yet sufficient to prompt the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy in a way that would materially support risky investments.
While quarterly GDP growth for the third quarter rose from 3.8% to 4.4%, and the quarterly GDP price index rose from 2.1% to 3.7%, the improvement mainly reduces recession risk, rather than signaling imminent policy easing.
“However, this is not good news for risky assets, as it does not encourage the Fed to ease its monetary policy, on the contrary.”
Until the Federal Reserve makes meaningful policy changes that free up liquidity, current market dynamics are likely to persist.
In the short term, Bitcoin remains range bound and consolidates as buyers and sellers remain evenly matched.
Final thoughts
- Ark Invest’s Cathie Wood predicts that Bitcoin could reach a market cap of $16 trillion within five years.
- Wider economic activity is expected to play a decisive role in shaping this outlook.