An analyst has explained when Bitcoin could potentially hit a bottom, based on the historical pattern followed by its price across cycles.
Bitcoin tends to take 364 days from top to bottom
In a new wire at “Bitcoin and BTC’s major cycles have followed a surprisingly consistent rhythm, both in timing and depth,” Martinez said.
Below is a chart shared by the analyst that highlights some of the similarities shared by the last few BTC cycles.
As visible in the chart, Bitcoin’s quarterly price has taken approximately 1,064 days to reach the top from the bottom of the previous bear market over the past three cycles. This, of course, assumes that the cryptocurrency’s peak above $126,000 was the top for the current cycle.
The distance from the top to the next bottom was also similar in the 2017 and 2021 cycles on the cryptocurrency’s quarterly chart, being around 364 days. “If this pattern holds, Bitcoin $BTC is now within the 364-day correction window, indicating a potential bottom around October 2026,” Martinez explains.
In the chart, the analyst has also highlighted a possible bottom target for Bitcoin, again based on the pattern from the previous cycles. The 2018 bear market bottomed after a decline of 84.22% from the bull market peak, while the 2022 bear market saw a decline of 77.57%.
Martinez has identified a 70% decline for the current cycle, which would bring the price target to the $37,500 level. It now remains to be seen whether this cycle will follow a similar trajectory to the previous cycles, or whether the asset will take a different direction this time.
The Bitcoin cycles chart shows the long-term trend of the asset using its quarterly price, but what about the short-term direction? In another X afterthe analyst has shared the 4-hour chart for BTC, highlighting a technical analysis (TA) pattern that is forming on a short scale.
As shown in the chart above, Bitcoin may have been following a parallel channel at its 4-hour price in recent weeks. A parallel channel appears when an asset observes consolidation between two parallel trendlines, with the lower level acting as support and the upper level acting as resistance.
The cryptocurrency retested the lower line of this parallel channel last week, leading to a recovery as support held. The asset has since returned to the middle zone of the pattern, indicating that there is currently no clear bias in either direction.
BTC price
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is hovering around $87,300, up 0.7% in the past seven days.