Key Takeaways
Why is Bitcoin’s price weak?
Major economic zones aggressively sold Bitcoin, with the US leading the way.
Will BTC Reach $95K in November?
The chance of Bitcoin reaching $95,000 has risen to 48%.
Bitcoin [BTC] was trading around $100,000 at the time of writing.
Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin is down 1.5%, with further declines possible due to widespread selling pressure globally.
US entities are dumping Bitcoin
The US was leading in BTC sales at the time of writing, as evidenced by the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index. The index has been in the red region since October 30, reflecting massive dumping by US entities.
BlackRock for example sold 6,800 BTC worth over $700 million, an average of about $30 million per transaction. The entity seemed unable to stop these capital outflows from Bitcoin and its products before the Fed’s announcement.
Source: CoinGlass
Furthermore, Bitcoin ETF flows turned positive after six consecutive days of outflows. According to one after by Satoshi Staker BTC ETFs saw inflows of around $240 million in the last 24 hours, although this was not enough to stem the outflows.
The aggressive dumping by US entities made any reversal difficult as other jurisdictions also mirrored this behavior.
Why is the chance of a turnaround small?
The likelihood of a market turnaround was slim as selling pressure spread across Asia and the European Union.
Over the past week, Bitcoin’s cumulative per-session returns fell from approximately +3% to -4%, reflecting growing bearish momentum.
Bearish sentiment increased, with sellers dominating each session. On November 6, sell orders easily exceeded ETF inflows, effectively wiping out buy-side demand.
Source: Velo
This feeling was reflected in Polymarket’s Prediction Markets on “What Price Will Bitcoin Reach in November?”
The probability of BTC falling to $95,000 increased to 48%, while the chance of a drop to $90,000 is now 24%.
Meanwhile, the chances of BTC rising to $115,000 or higher have fallen, averaging between 2% and 8%.
Overall market sentiment continues to lean toward selling, likely driven by the AI bubble, record job losses and the ongoing US government shutdown.
Moreover, global tariff tensions have further increased pressure on Bitcoin and other crypto assets.
Timing reversals with CVD divergence
With the chances of a reversal getting smaller, the differences in cardiovascular disease may indicate when we should anticipate it.
According to data from Hyblock Capital, prices tended to close higher when sales exceeded purchases within a shorter time frame, and vice versa.
Source: Hyblock Capital
All in all, Bitcoin experienced massive selling pressure around the world, which explained the current weakness. Therefore, recovery can only occur if bids exceed demand and aggressive selling is stopped.