On-chain data from Glassnode has revealed the reason why the XRP price has been in a persistent downward trend since 2025. Notably, the XRP price crashed from it is high above $3 last year and it has declined since then. While many in the crypto world believed that XRP could eventually regain the $3 level, the cryptocurrency has continued to struggleposting more gains each month amid broader market weakness and a shift in sentiment.
Why XRP Price Has Fallen Since 2025
Glassnode attributed XRP’s long-term price correction since 2025 to a shift in investor behavior due to the weakening of profitability within the chain and increasing losses among holders. According to the data, XRP fell below the total holder cost base, which represents the average price at which current investors acquired their tokens.
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When a cryptocurrency trades below this level, a large portion of containers are technically underwaterwhich means they are at a loss. This condition often leads to: panic selling as investors try to limit further losses, increasing selling pressure on the asset and reinforcing the downward price trend.
An important indicator that supports this view is the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR)measured using a seven-day exponential moving average (EMA). The SOPR tracks whether coins moved or sold on the blockchain are done at a profit or loss. Glassnode’s graph shows that XRP’s SOPR fell from around 1.6 in July 2025 to around 0.96 recently.
Specifically, a value above 1 indicates that holders are selling at a profit, while a value below indicates that coins are selling at a loss. This continued movement below the neutral level suggests that this is most likely the case selling activity in XRP is now done at a loss instead of taking a profit.
As a result, on-chain profitability for XRP holders has become negative. Such an environment typically weakens investor confidence in a cryptocurrency and reduces the incentive to hold it, especially among short-term traders. Negative profitability can also discourage the inflow of new capital as potential buyers see limited signs of recovery or momentum, further contributing to price decline or stagnation.
XRP structure reflects bearish 2022 setup
Interestingly enough, Glassnode noticed that The current market structure of XRP is very similar to a period between September 2021 and May 2022. During that earlier phase, XRP’s SOPR also fell below 1 and stayed there for a long time.
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The period was also characterized by prolonged consolidation and low volatility following sharp declines, before the market eventually stabilized. This comparison suggests that XRP may be going through a similar structural phase where losses dominate trading activity and recovery is postponed until selling pressure subsides and Sentiment is returning to positive territory.
At the time of writing, the XRP price has fallen even further and is now trading below $1.4. CoinMarketCap data shows the cryptocurrency has plunged more than 4.3% in the past 24 hours and more than 46% year to date.
Featured image from Freepik, chart from Tradingview.com