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BitMex co-founder and crypto-legend Arthur Hayes used the main stage in Tokyo’s Webx 2025 to reveal a blunt, numbers-first valuation case for the hype token of hyperliquid. On one slide Head “Hyperliquid: 126X Upside”, Modelstrom of Hayes’ Family Office Modelled how an accelerating stablecoin -economy could dramatically repress the decentralized Perps exchange.
Why hype could be the best crypto bet
The Dia’s starting point was explicit: “Stablecoin extension to increase the annual reimbursements to $ 258 billion”, with a net trading assumption of 0.03%, a disconeration base of 5%, and a “terminal value of hype rev” of $ 5.161 billion-$ 41.5-billed. potential 126x “. “In his speech, Hayes told the audience that he expects the hype” up to 126 times in the next three years. “
The timing of the prediction coincides with an eruption of milestones in the chain and trade for hyperliquid. According to data emphasized during and around the event, Hyperliquid open positions reached a record with 196,462 on Sunday, open interest rose above $ 15 billion, the total wallet peaked nearly $ 31 billion and on Sunday volume, a high $ 19.46 billion proposed in the weekend, by Defillama.
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A Redstone research bill last week argued that the location has “recorded more than 75% of the entire decentralized eternal exchange market within two years”, Dydx challenged and, sometimes, approaching Binance volumes on selected couples.
The 126x case of Hayes is based on a macro-to-micro bridge: a world where Stablecoin Float will be released in 2028 to around $ 10 trillion, the share of hyperliquid in the average daily volume reaches 26.4%, and that activity translates into $ 258 billion for the protocol in $ 258 billion.
The geometry of the model is what is important: if volumes and reimbursements scales with the stablecoin basis and if hype remains the instrument that reflexively records the protocol economy, the implicit terminal value dwares the current FDV of token. Those inputs, assumptions and outputs were all printed on the Mailstrom -Dia on stage in Tokyo.
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It is crucial that Hayes has supported the thesis with capital. Op 15 augustus, op de keten Slauth Lookonchain, markeerde dat Arthur Hayes meer Hype, LDO en ENA kocht, met details over cumulatieve vijfdaagse aankopen die 58.631 hype omvatten naast 1.750 ETH, 3,1 miljoen ENA, 1,29 miljoen LDO, 184.610 Pendle en 420.000 Ethfi (ongeveer $ 15,9 miljoen in totaal op gerapporteerde valuations).
The structural background helps explain why a model led by Stablecoin resonates for hyperliquid. The exchange is a decentralized location for perpetual futures, so that traders can take the exposure to leverage without end; It runs on its own L1 and has seen sustainable growth in both open interest and the generation of reimbursements in 2025.
Hayes has previously played Hype in May publicly in a price marking of $ 100 of $ 100-the deck on Monday was his most explicit attempt to bind an outcome of 2028 to measurable drivers. Whether the path requires a $ 10 trillion stablecoin base and a quarter share of decentralized Perps ADV is the core of the debate. But the mechanism that he emphasized – Fee -throughput with the acceptance of the Stablecoin, recorded in token value – is finished how many analysts already frame the design of HYPE, where protocol income and return link the token to location performance.
At the time of the press, hype traded at $ 45.84.
Featured image made with dall.e, graph of tradingview.com