Bitcoin’s latest recovery above $94,000 raises the question of whether this is the next stage the continuation of a bull cycle or the last rally before a deeper reset. However, an interesting technical view shared by crypto analyst Xanrox on TradingView suggests the bullish path many traders are looking at could end up lower than expected, even though short-term price strength is strong.
Elliott Wave setup leaves room for another push higher
Technical analysis of Bitcoin’s price action on the weekly candlestick time chart shows that the cryptocurrency has completed a five-pulse wave dating back to early 2023. This impulse wave count ended with Bitcoin peaking above $126,000 in October 2025 and the cryptocurrency is now playing out corrective waves ABC.
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Based on the Elliott Wave theory,
In this scenario, Bitcoin could still do that amount to as much as $100,000 to $103,000 in the coming weeks or months and even encourage a brief rotation into altcoins during the rally. However, that benefit is corrective, not impulsive, and the next step is a bigger step down once the structure is complete.
Bitcoin weekly candlestick. Source: TradingView
The long-term structure points to a painful recovery period
Xanrox’s analysis places Bitcoin within a linear long-term structure stretching from 2017 to 2026, highlighting how previous market cycles ended with deep corrections after euphoric peaks. The analysis uses the 2018 and 2022 declines, each of which wiped out more than three-quarters of Bitcoin’s value, as anchors for what could unfold next for the leading cryptocurrency.
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According to this framework the next major correction phase is expected to happen in 2026, when Bitcoin could fall into the sub-$60,000 region, with $57,000 being the main area of interest where the correction could end. The $57,000 price correction target is based on the location of the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement, projected from the recent 2025 peak, and will be just above the 200-week moving average.
The expected move would still represent a correction of about 54% from the 2025 high if this actually turns out to be the cycle peak. However, it is important to note that the presence of Spot Bitcoin ETFs introduces a stabilizing force compared to previous cycles in 2018 and 2022, and so any high correction could find a strong support level before falling to a low of $57,000.
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com