Amid the recent market recovery, Solana (SOL) is up about 10% from last week’s lows, recovering the $82 level and testing major resistance once again. However, some market observers have warned that the rally could be short-lived if the cryptocurrency does not turn a major level into support in the coming days.
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Solana price in ‘consolidation trap’
On Thursday, Solana rose 2.5% in an attempt to regain the $84 area after losing the area on Wednesday evening. The altcoin has been trading between the $76-$92 levels since February and has been moving within the lower half of this range for the past two weeks.
Ali Martinez marked a structural pattern that has been “remarkably consistent” since October 2025. In particular, the analyst explained that every time Solana lost momentum over the past six months, it repeated a three-step cycle.
According to Martinez, the pattern begins with the reclaiming of the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). This is followed by the rapid inability to handle the 50-day SMA as support. Finally, SOL enters the “consolidation trap,” a brief, sideways “complacency” period before the actual downturn begins.
As the chart shows, the cryptocurrency registered this pattern in November 2025 and January 2026, when it fell below the 50-day SMA and consolidated for weeks before the next major sell-off, eventually ending lower and hitting a new local low.
Solana rose above its 50-day SMA in mid-March, when it reached the local high of $97, and has since fallen below. Now the altcoin is in the consolidation phase, “drifting sideways” between $79-$81, and is below the key SMA, close to the $86 mark.
“If this pattern holds, this sideways move is not a ‘stabilization’ – it is the roll-up of a new leg to the downside. Based on previous examples, the inability to quickly reclaim the $86 level could portend a move towards $52,” Martinez claimed.
SOL crisis looms?
Market observer Leviathan noted that Solana has retested the lower region of his local range seven times since February, and that each jump has become weaker after each retest.
At the time of writing, the price has been rejected from the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), suggesting that a retest and breakdown of the key support area from $76-$80 could be next. “Historically, the more a support level is tested, the weaker it becomes. Keep a close eye on this level,” he asserted.
Crypto Lens Analyst shared a similar outlook, indicating a possible bearish formation on SOL’s chart. According to the post, the cryptocurrency has been trading in a bearish flag pattern since early February and broke out of formation when it fell below the $81 area in late March.
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This structure also developed in late 2025, leading to a 54% correction after Solana exited the pattern. After the recent rebound, the altcoin is retesting the lower bound of the pattern from support, which could turn this level into resistance if momentum does not hold.
“This is not random price action, it is a pattern,” the analyst warned. “If this continues, SOL could head towards the $45 zone.”
Featured image from Unsplash.com, chart from TradingView.com