The Bitcoin vs. gold debate is back in the discussion. Since the start of the West Asian crisis, Bitcoin has strengthened its hedge against geopolitical tensions, gaining 8.5%. In contrast, gold has fallen 12%, defying expectations that it would recover as a safe haven during the war.
In fact, gold has fallen twice as much as US equities over the same period (according to the S&P 500: a decline of 5.6%). This was surprising considering that gold outperformed BTC in Q4 2025 and early 2026.
Commenting on the difference, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas noted:
A lot of people dumped Bitcoin about three months ago because it wasn’t a safe haven, and gold was. Well, the tables have turned. I don’t think you should judge these assets in weeks or months anyway.
He added that both are stores of value, noting that one is solid while the other is slightly younger. In a separate post on
BTC vs. Gold: ETF Inflows Diverge
On Tuesday, March 24, Spot BTC ETFs saw daily net inflows of $167.23 million, breaking the three-day streak of outflows. In March alone, the ETF complex has raked in $2.5 billion in net inflows and is poised to turn year-to-date (YTD) inflows to positive.
In contrast, gold ETFs have recorded outflows of over $22 billion over the same period. If BTC’s resilient performance continues and ETF inflows yield gold, the crypto asset could gain more traction in the near term.
That said, the BTC/Gold ratio, which tracks the relative performance of BTC versus gold, was still within a multi-year range.
In March, BTC outperformed gold by 32%, but if a crypto winter bottom occurs in 2022, the ratio could push the bottom of its range to 9.
That would imply that the bottom of the BTC market cycle was close, but an underperformance of +43% against gold before there was a sustainable recovery.
In fact, the above perspective is widely reinforced by Fidelity, which believes the $60,000 level is the likely bottom for the current market cycle. At the time of writing, BTC was defending the $68,000 and May support eye $80K as ETF inflows increase.
Final summary
- BTC ETFs attracted $2.5 billion in net inflows in March and could also turn YTD flows positive.
- However, gold ETFs have seen consistent outflows as BTC emerges as a relatively better safe haven amid the West Asian crisis.