Prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket are facing setbacks following trading activities related to Iran’s airstrikes and the reported death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour defended the platform’s handling of a market focused on whether Khamenei would be ousted as Supreme Leader. to emphasize that the company does not allow markets that directly settle on someone’s death.
“We don’t mention markets that are directly related to death. If there are markets where potential outcomes involve death, we design the rules to prevent people from profiting from death. That’s what we’ve done here.”
According to Mansour, the company settled the market at the last traded price before the time of death, in accordance with its rules. The company also reimbursed all costs related to the market. Users who opened positions after the reported time of death were refunded the difference between their purchase price and the last traded price prior to the event.
Mansour said the platform will work to improve the way market rules and disclosures are exposed.
Meanwhile, blockchain analytics account Bubblemaps so-called that six suspected insiders generated approximately $1.2 million by betting on a U.S. attack on Iran. According to the post, the wallets were funded within 24 hours, placing ‘yes’ bets hours before the strike and targeting a February 28 outcome.
The allegations have fueled debate over transparency and fairness in geopolitical prediction markets.
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Generated image: Midjourney