JPMorgan Chase’s investment banking arm is forecasting a significant rally for one commodity amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
According to JPMorgan’s co-head of economic research, Joseph Lupton, the military operation against Iran by the US and Israel could not only increase the prices of oil and gold, but also aluminum.
“Aluminium is another market to watch as the Middle East is a major producer and exporter of the base metal. In 2025, the region had a net exportable surplus of 5 million tonnes (mmt) of primary aluminium, accounting for almost 7% of global production.”
According to Lupton, if aluminum supply appears likely to be “materially disrupted or disrupted,” the price could “quickly move towards $4,000” per tonne, a gain of about 22% from current levels.
Aluminum is trading at $3,282 at the time of writing.
Lupton say that the price of Brent crude oil will continue to rise if tankers cannot pass through the Iranian-controlled Strait of Hormuz.
“A sustained reduction of roughly one-fifth of this supply – on the order of 4 million barrels per day (mbd) – would be enough to push Brent crude well above $100 per barrel (bbl). It will be some time before we consider material changes to this year’s energy price outlook, but concerns about tail risk are likely to remain until the conflict subsides.”
Brent crude is trading at $85 at the time of writing.
In the case of gold, Lupton predicts the yellow metal could rise 5% to 10% in the near term to reach a January high of around $5,400.
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