Bitcoin miners dumped a record 40,000 BTC in the first quarter of this year – more than all of 2025 combined and well above the 20,000 BTC sold in the panic following Terra’s collapse in mid-2022. That number lies quietly beneath the surface of what otherwise appears to be a recovering market.
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Miners spot problems even as prices rise
The sell-off came as mining difficulty fell 2.4% to 135 trillion, while the network’s hashrate climbed back to 992 EH/s from about 978 exahashes per second this month, according to Glassnode data.
When producers sell at record pace during a dip in difficulty, it points to one thing: tight margins. The mining economy has not yet recovered as the price chart would suggest, and any sustained move above $80,000 should absorb continued selling from that same group.
Bitcoin was trading at $76,827 on Tuesday afternoon, up 1.4% in 24 hours, after Iran confirmed it would send a delegation to Pakistan for a second round of ceasefire talks.
Ether gained 1.18% to reach $2,311. XRP rose 1.2% to $1.42. Solana lagged the pack, up just 0.9% on the day and down 1% on the week.
The broader market moved in the same direction. The MSCI All Country World Index rose 0.1% after a break on Monday, with Asian shares leading the way and the regional technology index gaining 2.38%.
Brent crude fell 0.7% to $94.80 per barrel. Gold fell 0.6% to around $4,800. Silver fell 1% to $78.89. Government bonds and the dollar were largely flat.
A deadline that the markets cannot ignore
The two weeks ceasefire between the US and Iran ends Wednesday evening, Washington time. US President Donald Trump said on Monday that he does not intend to extend the agreement.
The markets are now priced around that deadline. Three ships tried to sail through Strait of Hormuz early Tuesday, with the U.S. and Iranian blockades still active — the first real test of whether the waterway will be cleared before a deal is signed.
Bitcoin has lagged behind equities throughout this stretch. The MSCI ACWI has had an 11-day rally that has failed only once since the de-escalation began. Bitcoin, on the other hand, crawled back from below $75,000 to just above $76,000 during the same period.
Demand for ETFs maintains the bottom
Spotting Bitcoin ETFs According to SoSoValue, the company raised $996 million last week. Ethereum Spotting ETFs grossed $276 million in the same period. That institutional buying has kept a floor under prices even as miners push supply into the market.
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Research firm Kaiko said a clear break above $76,000 would open a path to $85,000. Analysts at K33 pointed to the same level as a possible trigger for a short squeeze. On the other hand, a drop below $75,000 – if Wednesday’s deadline passes without a deal – remains the main risk traders are paying attention to.
Bitcoin’s truce boosted the alpha crypto. The miners use it to sell. Until that changes, the rebound will have a floor but no clear roof.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView