XRP has spent the better part of four months carving out a trading range with a series of contested highs and lows that kept both bulls and bears engaged.
That appearance of stability is now critically endangered, as the cryptocurrency has returned to the exact support level that anchored its lows during the consolidation. If XRP loses this support level, it will determine the next major change in direction.
XRP returns to the same low range
XRP’s price action on the daily candlestick time chart shows that the cryptocurrency is currently locked within a consolidation range that has been forming since February 2026. The upper limit of the range is around $1.55, which has capped several rallies since February, while the lower limit is around $1.26 to $1.28.
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The analysis, that was posted on crypto analyst ‘Guy on the Earth’s social media platform has become lower since then to about $1.16.
That loss of support matters because the low range was one of the cleanest technical levels on the chart. XRP previously reacted from this area during previous pullbacks in March and April, leading buyers to be expected to defend the structure again.
However, now that the situation is different, a weekly close below the range would weaken this assumption and indicate that the months-long sideways move has ended in the sellers’ favor.
The negative scenarios: from $1.10 to $0.63
Analyst Guy on the Earth, whose chart forms the basis of this analysis, explained the case lose current support zone puts XRP on a path to $1.10, which is just below the wick low of early February. That scenario already appears to be unfolding, as the cryptocurrency is now trading below the floor, down 6.1% in the past 24 hours.
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The more consequential question is how far a sustained crisis extends from $1.10. The most likely bottom zone is between $0.75 and $0.95 if support breaks out of the range and a deeper correction takes place.
Analyst Crypto Patel, weighing in independently on Xpointed to the $1.10-$1.30 range as a current accumulation zone and said if that support breaks, buying anywhere between $0.65 and $0.85 could become a generational entry.
That range would be painful for holders, but it would still fit within a larger bullish market pullback if XRP eventually stabilizes and heads higher again. The worst-case bullish scenario in the analysis is around $0.63, which would mean XRP gives almost everything back of bull market gains since late 2023 before you find a sustainable one support.
Featured image from Freepik, chart from Tradingview.com