Bitcoin’s 2024 halving is just two days away, and there are already varying expectations about what could happen to the BTC price once the event is complete. One way to get an idea of how this could play out for the Bitcoin price is through historical data and how the cryptocurrency has performed in times like these.
Bitcoin price trends for previous halvings
There have been three halvings so far since Bitcoin first launched in 2009 and with each halving, Bitcoin has shown different reactions to the event. The first halving took place on November 28, 2012, the second on July 9, 2016 and the last on May 11, 2020.
For the purposes of this report, only the last two halvings will be referred to, as adoption began to rise at the same time these two occurred. The 2016 halving occurred when Bitcoin was trading around $650, but in the weeks following the halving, the BTC price would drop another 30%, reaching a low of $460, before rising again.
BTC price crashed 30% post-halving in 2016 | Source: Tradingview.com
Then, during the 2020 halving, the BTC price hovered just below $10,000, and after the halving there would also be a price drop. However, this drop was not as large as the drop in 2016, with the BTC price only falling by around 15% during this period.
BTC price crashed 15% post-halving in 2020 | Source: Tradingview.com
This has formed quite a trend with the halving, with the Bitcoin price falling after the event, which is expected to be bullish. Therefore, if this trend continues, BTC could see a sharp price drop despite expectations that the halving will be bullish for the price.
However, it is important to remember that subsequent halvings crashed less after the halving than their predecessors. So if this holds true this year, Bitcoin could still face a crash, but to a much lesser extent. For example, the 2020 crash after the halving was half the size of the 2016 crash after the halving, so if we keep this trend, the crash this time could only be a crash of about 7-8%.
BTC deviates from established halving trends
While the historical data suggests where Bitcoin could go after the crash, it’s also important to note that the digital asset has deviated from some pre-halving trends. One of these anomalies is the fact that the Bitcoin price hit a new all-time high before the halving, something that has never happened before. This could indicate that there will be a complete departure from these established trends, meaning that a crash may not follow the halving after all.
Another anomaly is that the few weeks leading up to the last two Bitcoin halvings were green. However, in 2024, the last three weeks leading up to the halving were red as the BTC price fell. This also lends credence to the fact that there could also be a deviation from the post-halving trends.
One thing to keep in mind is that the crypto market has always been uncertain and Bitcoin has a habit of doing what no one expected. The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index has retreated from the realm of extreme greed, but remains stuck in greed, meaning investors are still bullish. In this case, if Bitcoin were to do the opposite of what is expected, it could follow the established trend and collapse again.
BTC deviates from pre-halving trend | Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview.com
Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from Tradingview.com
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