The massive rise in the Bitcoin price since April 2026 is still seen as part of a broader bear market phase, according to on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant. While some market experts believe that the The rebound could signal another bull runCryptoQuant’s unrealized earnings data shows that the numbers are nowhere near bull market levels. Particularly as the value of BTC rises, increasing sales pressure could threaten the cryptocurrency’s ongoing rally, potentially causing a price drop.
Profit-taking reaches three-month high after Bitcoin price rise
Bitcoin rises to $82,000 on May 6 came as a shock to the broader digital asset market, as that was the first time the cryptocurrency reached that level since late January 2026. Initially, BTC broke above $81,000 on May 5 and rose towards $82,000 the next day, only to be rejected. Now, after the surge, Julio Monero, head of research at CryptoQuant, believes investors could prepare for take profitpotentially adding more volatility to the cryptocurrency’s price.
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Money said in an analysis report that Bitcoin holders realized daily profit of up to 14,600 BTC on May 4, which is the highest single-day figure since December 10, 2025. Net profit on a 30-day basis also soared, with holders realizing more than 20,000 BTC. These figures reinforce analysts’ belief that selling pressure could be imminent.
The CryptoQuant analyst also noted that Bitcoin has risen more than 20% since early April and is now trading around $80,000 after the latest rally. To some it may seem that way a renewed and sustainable bull run. However, he described the move as a “bear market rally,” suggesting Bitcoin is here to stay within a broader bear trend despite recent price increases.
Monero also revealed that BTC price increases since April were fueled by easing macroeconomic pressure and a previous undervaluation, which kept the price low from January to March 2026. He added that a sharp one increasing demand for perpetual futures has helped support the price of BTC, indicating that much of the buying is likely being driven by leveraged traders rather than new accumulation.
All these developments seem to be pushing the price of the cryptocurrency higher, despite the social and whale sentiment still firmly in Fear territory. At the same time, the price score and volatility indicators are flashing Greed, indicating that BTC’s rally is likely driven solely by price action, and not by any meaningful or real shift in how investors actually think about the market.
Analyst signals upcoming downside risk for BTC
In its report, Monero added that Bitcoin’s 30-day realized gain of over 20,000 BTC is still far from the 130,000 to 200,000 BTC range typically seen in bull markets. He believes the gap alone suggests the market has more pain ahead.
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In addition to the broader bear market and potential selling pressure, Monero also points to specific warning signs Bitcoin’s downside risk. He noted that while perpetual futures continue to rise, spot demand and currency inflows remain weaker than expected. He described this setup as one that is “consistent with a rally that carries significant correction risk but has not yet reached a confirmed distribution peak.”
Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com