Bitcoin is in the spotlight, while altcoins struggle to find momentum. At the same time, retail traders (once the heartbeat of every rally) have stepped back and been replaced by the clinical flows of Spot ETFs.
The market looks familiar, but also… slightly different.
This is interesting because AMBCrypto previously reported that Bitcoin’s [BTC] landscape in 2025 will be shaped by a new ‘dual strategy’. This is where investors embrace both the convenience of ETFs and control over their own management.
ETFs have recorded inflows of $4-$6 billion for months, as power users continue to defend the importance of keeping their own keys.
BTC sets the pace
Source: Alpharactal
Bitcoin continued to dominate the market, and the data made it hard to argue otherwise.
The Altcoin Season Index shows that only 4 out of 55 altcoins have outperformed BTC in the past 60 days. That’s well below the 75% threshold needed to enter real altcoin season.
So the chart kept the market deep in ‘Bitcoin season’, with the index hovering around 5-10%.
Source: Alpharactal
The correlation diagram also has a similar observation. Most major altcoins are closely tied to BTC and cluster around a 0.7-0.9 correlation on average.
That means Bitcoin’s movements still determine the direction of the entire market. Altcoins are responsive and not leading.
Retail is taking a step back as ETFs take over
Building on Bitcoin’s firm grip on the market, the drop in retail activity adds even more to the equation.
According to analyst Darkfostsmall holders – “Shrimps” with less than 1 BTC – sent only 411 BTC to Binance, compared to 2675 BTC during the post-FTX panic in late 2022.
Even within the ETF era alone, their inflows have fallen by more than 60%, from 1056 BTC after the launch of the Spot ETFs to the lows on December 9th.
Source: CryptoQuant
The timing is peculiar. Bitcoin is on the rise, but its retail presence on exchanges is fading.
Instead of chasing rallies, ordinary investors now seem to prefer the simplicity and safety of ETFs. This can make the market relatively more stable.
However, there is still a bit of struggle
Bitcoin’s price action appeared hesitant.
BTC was trading at $90,196 at the time of writing, which remains below all major EMAs – with the 20-day at $91,315, the 50-day at $96,902, and the 100-day at $102,323. Until the price reaches at least the 20-day moving average, upside conviction will likely remain weak.
Source: TradingView
The RSI showed moderate demand, while the CMF indicated only mild capital inflows at 0.07. The market seems to be waiting for a clear catalyst.
For now, Bitcoin is holding strong… but it’s not moving forward either.
Final thoughts
- Bitcoin’s dominance remains unchallenged as demand for ETFs increases.
- Until BTC regains the major moving averages, the market will likely remain firmly under Bitcoin’s control.