In the current scenario, the key question is whether the market has actually bottomed out. Historically, signals of an early low often include profit-taking by investors, clear signs of seller exhaustion, and an asset becoming heavily oversold.
Is Bitcoin [BTC] are you showing any of these signs? From a technical perspective, BTC’s RSI is deeply oversold, falling to around 15. This move matches Bitcoin’s correction of roughly 33% from its peak of $97,000.
Against this backdrop, BTC’s 4% intraday jump from $60,000 signals a potential local bottom. The most important question, however, is whether the statistics in the chain confirm this vision. If not, the jump can quickly turn into a bull trap.
The market is questioning the true bottom of BTC
Despite the first signals, the market still does not seem fully convinced.
On the one hand, analysts claim that Bitcoin’s current pullback is simply an “extension” of the 2025 bear phase, even though BTC hit a new all-time high of nearly $126,000 during the cycle.
So, what is this divergence signaling? According to this view, BTC has continued to underperform since early 2025 despite the ATH, declining 33% versus the S&P500, 58% versus gold, and 26% versus the M2 expansion.
Source: TradingView (BTC/Gold)
Simply put, analysts think Bitcoin has now reached a bottom, supported by the 30% correction since early 2025. In this view, the bear phase could be nearing an end, with $60,000 serving as the basis for a reversal.
However, skeptics argue that $60,000 could mark the beginning of a deeper move.
Historically, Bitcoin bear markets have followed a pattern of deep but tapering declines. If this trend continues, a potential bottom in 2026, almost a 70% drop from the ATH of $126,000, would place Bitcoin around the $38,000 level.
This raises an important strategic question for the market: are participants in a position to accumulate the “dip” or reduce exposure before a deeper correction pushes PnL further into the red and extends the bear phase?
Bitcoin’s chances of recovery become weaker as structural stress increases
The road to recovery for Bitcoin HODLers does not look immediate.
According to Glassnode datamore than 9.3 million BTC are underwater, the highest level since January 2023. Simply put, a large portion of holders are struggling with unrealized losses, putting pressure on the market’s conviction.
At the same time, Bitcoin has fallen below the estimated electricity cost of almost $77,000. When the price falls below this level, Mining becomes less profitableincreasing capitulation risk during late-stage bear markets.
Source:
All things considered, Bitcoin now needs a clear catalyst to absorb supply, reignite FOMO, and restore the HODLing belief among underwater holders. The main problem is that a strong one institutional bid still hasn’t returned.
From a macro perspective, this creates a classic supply-demand imbalance, where available supply exceeds demand. Rising capitulation risk only reinforces this dynamic and further discourages long-term holding.
In this context, BTC’s structure does not yet confirm $60,000 as a bottom.
The result? Bitcoin’s 4% intraday bounce could culminate in another fakeout, potentially triggering long liquidations and sending the price back to the $50,000 zone, keeping the broader $38,000 bottom firmly in play.
Final thoughts
- Despite BTC’s 4% intraday bounce and early technical signals, on-chain stress, miner pressure and unrealized losses suggest the $60,000 level is not yet a firm bottom.
- Historical patterns and macro imbalances between supply and demand indicate that Bitcoin could revisit the $50,000 zone, leaving the $38,000 bottom line in play.