- Bitcoin miner predicts a more stable Bitcoin market after the 2024 halving
- According to Thiel, BTC could reach new highs by the end of 2025
During a recent episode of The Pomp Podcast, Fred Thiel, chairman and CEO of Marathon Digital Holdings (NASDAQ:MARA), highlighted that the upcoming halving positions Bitcoin (BTC) for a higher appreciation rate. This compared to gold. Furthermore, this can be expected to provide greater stability during market downturns.
“The only unique thing Bitcoin has that stocks don’t is that finite amount of Bitcoin.”
The expansion of the supply of Bitcoin will be slower than the growth of the supply of gold in the gold market. This will have a bigger impact on the price, he said.
What’s Different About Bitcoin’s Halving in 2024?
Traditionally, halvings have led to a rise in BTC prices, offsetting miners’ revenue losses. However, Thiel drew attention to the introduction of Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs).
According to management, these financial instruments are likely to lead to increased liquidity and reduced volatility. This will also make the cryptocurrency more attractive to institutional investors. This shift is further amplified by trading activity around ETFs, such as the move from grayscale to lower-cost options.
Finally, Thiel stated that various investment options, including direct Bitcoin positions, futures markets and diversified ETF baskets, underscore its growing integration with mainstream financial systems.
Miner strategies in the new era
The director also sheds light on the current game plan for Bitcoin miners, which is evolving beyond traditional utility-scale mining. Now miners are increasingly focusing on ‘energy harvesting’. Looking ahead, the vision is that Bitcoin mining will resemble micro-grids. By tapping into widespread, stranded energy resources, miners can operate more sustainably and potentially achieve zero-cost Bitcoin mining.
This shift would significantly improve the security of the Bitcoin network.
“…making it the safest network in the world.”
Macro environment and Bitcoin
Thiel believes that the price of BTC and the global hash rate are crucial factors in the Bitcoin mining industry. These elements affect the ability of miners to raise capital and the price of mining equipment. However, despite these challenges, BTC has proven to be a strong investment over the past decade.
“Bitcoin is the best investment anyone can make in 10 to 15 years, but the question is: are you willing to tolerate the risk you run?”
Still, global geopolitics, the strength of the USD, inflation rates, and external factors such as energy prices and trade dynamics, largely beyond the control of the Federal Reserve, could significantly impact Bitcoin’s attractiveness. These factors, combined with Bitcoin’s inherent volatility and fluctuating global hash rate, contribute to the cryptocurrency’s fluctuating appeal in different macroeconomic scenarios.
Outlook for 2024: Stability and growth
What’s next for Bitcoin in 2024, especially after the halving? Well, the director believes,
“I won’t be the one asking for $1 million in Bitcoin at the end of the year. I think it will be a much more modest number… we will see institutional money coming in slowly but surely… transaction volumes and inflows will grow over time, which will all be good for Bitcoin.”
Thiel also shared a cautious but insightful price prediction for Bitcoin during the Pomp podcast. He expects the King Coin to reach an ATH by the end of the third or early fourth quarter, before a sell-off that could return its value to the mid-40s or low-50s.
According to Thiel, this trend will stabilize in early 2025, followed by a gradual increase. By doing this it will reach a new ATH near $120,000 by the end of 2025.