Lawrence Lepard, Managing Partner at Equity Management Associates, shared his views on the future of gold and Bitcoin amid potential economic turmoil. In a recent conversation with Stephan Livera, Lepard speculated that we are approaching a pivotal moment that he calls the “next big print,” which could trigger major price moves in both assets.
He expects that the financial system could face a crisis within the next six to 18 months – whether from the bond market, the stock market or some other source – forcing governments to inject liquidity into the economy. Lepard believes that if this happens, Bitcoin could rise to between $300,000 and $350,000, surpassing previous highs, while gold could rise to between $4,000 and $5,000.
However, Lepard warns of the possibility of severe deflation, which could lead to a liquidity crisis despite government efforts to stabilize the economy. In such a scenario, he predicts that Bitcoin could retreat to around $85,000 to $100,000, while gold could also see a significant correction.
Looking further ahead, Lepard foresees a second wave of monetary interventions that could lead to even more drastic results. He suggests that in the worst-case scenario, if economic conditions deteriorate, governments could resort to universal basic income (UBI) measures to support struggling families. He foresees Bitcoin potentially reaching $1 million and gold rising to between $20,000 and $40,000 during this period of heightened economic distress.
Lepard’s analysis is influenced by the concept of the ‘fourth turning’, which states that social and economic cycles tend to repeat themselves every 80 to 100 years. He thinks we are currently in such a turn, which could result in a major reset of the financial system around 2027 to 2031.
Despite the bleak outlook, Lepard remains optimistic about the future, arguing that technological advances – such as AI and nuclear energy – could lead to improvements in living standards. He argues that a more decentralized financial system could alleviate social unrest and prevent conflicts fueled by centralized government control.