Tom Lee, head of research at Fundstrat, is betting on a quick recovery Ethereum. He pointed out a pattern dating back to 2018: every time ETH fell deeply, it later rebounded strongly.
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That history set the tone of his comments in Hong Kong, where he argued that previous collapses ended with quick turnarounds.
Tom Lee supports a quick rebound
According to Lee, Ethereum does have that endure down more than 50% on eight separate occasions since 2018, and each time the decline has returned.
He used these past moves as a basis for his view that another sharp recovery is likely. Analysts often disagree on how much weight to give to previous cycles.
$ETH 100% V-shaped plate 👀
Tom Lee highlights Ethereum’s eight V-shaped recoveries since 2018.
Tom DeMark, whose models are followed by macro legends like Paul Tudor Jones and used by institutional firms, says an eventual undershoot of nearly $1,890 would “perfect” the bottom.
That… pic.twitter.com/j9zWoUOLgP
— SamAlτcoin.eth (@SAMALTCOIN_ETH) February 11, 2026
Market conditions are not identical now, but patterns are important because traders use them. Some analysts have highlighted the $1,890 level as a likely low.
They said it could be probed twice in an “undercut” before it would stabilize. That kind of setup is common in volatile markets and is used to find entry points.
Turning off depresses the fluid supply
Reports show that demand remains strong even as prices fall. The validator entry queue has swollen to around 21 days, with around 4 million ETH waiting to be accepted.
This has left more than 30% of the total supply locked – approximately 36.7 million ETH. People earn around 2.80% APR on staked coins, a modest return by crypto standards, but enough to convince many holders to put money away.
When large sums of money are immobilized in this way, the tradable supply becomes smaller and price reactions can be amplified, both on the way down and up.
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Ethereum price action and market tension
Market movements were sharp. ETH fell to around $1,900 at the time of writing, down 5.4% in the last seven days, and failed to stay above $2,000 in recent days.
In the last 30 days, the token fell by approximately 36%. Heavy liquidations have been recorded, with more than $1 billion in positions closed as debt needs to be reduced.
That generated quick sales and made traders cautious. Economic data, geopolitical headlines and the prospect of US inflation figures have added to the nervous mood. Some agencies now view any recovery as tentative until volatility subsides.
Whether that recovery comes quickly or takes time, Lee’s position is clear: sharp declines in the past have not marked the end of Ethereum. He sees the current stress as a new chapter in a known cycle, and not as a structural break.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView