Macroeconomist Alex Krüger doesn’t think crypto is destined to wallow in a long bear market.
In a new thread, Kruger tells His 179,000 followers on social media platform
The first scenario occurred in March 2020, when crypto prices fell due to the coronavirus but then recovered within two months, kicking off one of the biggest bull runs in the sector’s history.
The second was in May 2021, when Bitcoin (BTC) crashed by more than 30% after hitting a new all-time high in April. Crypto assets continued to fall in price until late July, when the sector reversed course on its way to new highs in November.
The third occurred in May 2022, when the Terra ecosystem imploded and crypto assets caused a prolonged six-month price decline.
Krüger thinks that the third scenario is the least likely predicts crypto will follow the rapid recovery path of the first option, but “without expecting the wild performance of 2020-2021.”
He also notes that he doesn’t believe the U.S. economy is led for a recession, which would drive crypto prices down even further.
“We just saw the entire world experiencing a crypto-like leveraged flushout. That’s it. Life goes on. Unless there is a recession on the horizon, which is possible but unlikely at this point.
In that case, this was just a first sample. That means you have to choose your camp: recession or no recession. And act accordingly. I’m in the no-recession camp. Will pay extreme attention to all US employment data points. We are now firmly in a ‘bad economic data is bad for prices’ trading environment.
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