Bitcoin, after experiencing one of the steepest declines in the past day, has held the $90,000 threshold for four consecutive days.
This stability has somewhat increased confidence in the market, which supports the view that a recovery remains possible. However, the market still shows significant hurdles for BTC.
The supply cluster remains the biggest threat to Bitcoin
Bitcoins [BTC] The biggest threat remains supply, which is clustered at two major levels. Supply levels are regions where sell orders are accumulating, which can slow bullish momentum.
The closest supply cluster is between $93,000 and $96,000, while the second cluster is between $103,000 and $108,000. Bitcoin would face major resistance if it trades to either level due to the volatility concentrated in these zones.
Source: Glassnode
If it doesn’t break through, Bitcoin could fall back below the $90,000 mark, which it only recently reclaimed. A decisive close below $82,000, the true average market value, could even trigger a broader bearish market phase.
But even if Bitcoin overcomes these supply levels, another major hurdle remains – a key determinant of continued bullish momentum.
Criteria for short-term holders
Bitcoin still needs to meet additional criteria on the chart to reset the market to some extent.
A key metric is the STH cost basis, the average price at which short-term holders (wallets holding Bitcoin for 155 days or less) acquired their coins. This figure represents the total cost basis for that cohort.
Source: Glassnode
According to Glassnode, this level is currently at $109,800. Historically, price trading above this level has supported stability and opened the door for further rallies.
However, moving below that signals continued selling pressure from short-term holders, which could weigh on the market.
This means that after tackling the $108,000 supply zone, Bitcoin still needs to climb above $109,800 to regain stability and unlock stronger bullish potential.
Global indicator warns of volatility
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) continues to signal increasing volatility in global markets.
When this metric rises, as it is now, it typically impacts markets like the S&P 500, which has historically kept pace with Bitcoin.
Source: AlpharactalSuch volatility often leads to short-term market declines, which could be the case here. However, market analyst Joao Wedson warned that the situation could escalate into something more serious.
“Big soap bubbles in the past [like the dotcom bubble]the VIX tended to rise just before things exploded… Big Tech and AI companies are under more pressure than ever.”
A sharp crash of this magnitude could hit risky assets harder, potentially pushing Bitcoin into a confirmed bearish phase.
Final thoughts
- Bitcoin needs to overcome two major market clusters on the chart between $93,000 and $108,000, according to the liquidation heatmap data.
- Global market uncertainty continues to weigh on Bitcoin as broader risk sentiment weakens.