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The bull run can extend further than Q4 2025, until 2026, because of macro catalysts, according to Arthur Hayes. In the short term, however, BTC has to free up $ 117K to continue.
The market can still have room for growth, even though it is at the late stage of the Bull Run, according to Bitmex founder Arthur Hayes.
In the past two cycles (2017 and 2021), Bitcoin [BTC] Peaked in the first quarter of the year after the halving event.
If that pattern repeats itself, the Timeline Q4, 2025 would be. But Hayes believes that President Donald Trump could extend the rally in 2026.
Source: BTC Cycle Top (2017 versus 2021)
Trump Effect
According to HayesTrump wants to print more money, such as Covid checks to support programs that Republicans can give an easy victory in the next interim elections in 2026.
He said that the current FED chairman, Jerome Powell, will be out of his office and contributes to ‘full steam’ and ‘middle of the cycle. He added”
“I think people are the benefit in shares, crypto and everything that they are not enough to subject.”
In other words, it seems that the ‘Trump Trade’ that the market removed at the end of 2024 can play again in 2026, per Hayes.
Source: Glassnode
Glassnode issued, however, showed that we are already in euphoria, usually seen as BTC that enters the price discovery or a new record level.
Since the levels are associated with massive non -realized profit, the pressure to sell is also increasing. The end result is a marked Cyclustop if the sale escalates.
But the real MVRV, another top indicator of the market cycle, was far from marking a ‘strong sale’ associated with peaks from the past. That is why there can be a small space for extra rally like Hayes projects.
Source: Cryptuquant
In the meantime, Glassnode noted in the short term that BTC should erase the $ 117k obstacle, because a huge stock was purchased at the level and could attract sales pressure.
That is why the level for the decision of the FED rate can be crucial to determine the bulls that continues advance to $ 120k
Source: Glassnode