Key Takeaways
Why do investors have confidence in Bitcoin now?
The Fed’s lower KC policy uncertainty and ETF inflows of $2.5 billion indicate confidence in the Fed’s direction and stronger crypto risk appetite.
What do BTC on-chain signals reveal?
Binary CDD near 1 indicated that long-term holders were strategically selling as institutions piled in, indicating an early-stage accumulation phase before broader rallies.
Bitcoin [BTC] remains a risky asset that continues to act as a haven for investors during periods of economic uncertainty. Despite the steady inflows, the asset traded at $122,000, up 0.57% at the time of writing, as the steady inflows offset muted retail activity.
But could a stronger rally be next? AMBCrypto’s analysis suggests the likelihood remains high.
Economic uncertainty positions Bitcoin for a rally
The macroeconomic uncertainty in the US market has positioned Bitcoin favorably for a potential rally.
This uncertainty is measured by the Kansas City Fed’s Policy Rate Uncertainty (KC PRU) index, which tracks short-term market uncertainty based on one-year interest rate forecasts.
The KC PRU has historically been closely correlated with Bitcoin’s performance.
A decline in the index often signals reduced uncertainty, encouraging investors to allocate more capital to risky assets like Bitcoin, the top crypto asset with a market cap of $2 trillion.
Source: Alpharactal
In that context, data from Alpharactal showed that previous periods of decline in the KC PRU, particularly 2019-2021, coincided with strong BTC rallies. A similar situation has occurred between 2024 and early 2025, indicating renewed upward momentum.
That macro background corresponds to accumulation trends in the chain.
Bitcoin accumulation is increasing
Bitcoin accumulation continued to increase, led by institutional investors.
Data from SoSoValuewhich tracks ETF inflows and outflows, showed eight consecutive weekdays of inflows into Bitcoin totaling $2.5 billion.
The latest daily inflows amounted to $875 million, reflecting renewed conviction among major investors who view current prices as an accumulation zone.
Source: SoSoValue
Retail participation, on the other hand, is more moderate.
According to MintGlassDuring the same period, private buyers added approximately $47 million worth of BTC. Although smaller in size, it still reflected positive sentiment in line with the broader market tone.
Long-term holders maintain stable control
The broader accumulation strength is confirmed by the Accumulation/Distribution indicator, which rose to 12.57 billion in volume at the time of writing, indicating strong capital retention.
To gauge whether investors are likely to hold or sell, we examined the Binary Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) metric. A value of 1 suggests that long-term holders are selling, while 0 indicates that they are holding.
Source: CryptoQuant
While the CDD primarily measures long-term holder activity, its influence often extends to the broader market. Long-term holding can increase confidence, while higher sales can lead to caution. However, there are nuances to note.
At the time of writing, the measure was hovering around 1, indicating that long-term holders were selling their positions, while institutions and retail were buying. This simply reflects stronger investor confidence, convinced of the potential upside of Bitcoin’s price.