Bitcoin is back in the spotlight following guidance from Citigroup, where analysts have mapped out a broad price range for the year ahead that reflects both upside momentum and continued downside risks.
The bank’s latest forecasts indicate a baseline target of $143,000 for the next twelve months, anchored in expectations around growth in ETF participation and clearer regulatory frameworks. Additionally, Citi outlined an optimistic path extending to $189,000, alongside a bearish scenario predicting a downside move to $78,500.
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ETF adoption and institutional demand
Citi’s base and bullish scenarios are built around the same core thesis: the growing role of regulated investment vehicles in shaping Bitcoin’s market structure. Crypto analysts always note that Spot Bitcoin ETFs have lowered the barriers for institutional investors, making it easier for large pools of capital to gain exposure without immediate custody concerns.
Analysts at Citi lean into this school of thought and project bullish price levels for Bitcoin. With expectations of ETF interest and regulatory clarity in mind, Citi expects Bitcoin to move towards $143,000 within the next twelve months under the base case.
Interestingly, the outlook of a bullish scenario from the analysts predicted that Bitcoin will trade somewhere around $189,000 within the next twelve months. These projections are notable given the current state of Bitcoin’s price action currently struggling at almost $90,000. They also depend on a reversal in the state of flows around Spot Bitcoin ETFs.
LATEST: 📈 Analysts at Citi estimate Bitcoin’s twelve-month price base case at $143,000, driven by expected ETF interest and regulatory clarity, with a bullish scenario of $189,000 and a bearish scenario of $78,500. pic.twitter.com/jAukEDkXQe
— CoinMarketCap (@CoinMarketCap) December 20, 2025
Despite its constructive outlook, Citi also flagged downside risks that could derail bullish momentum. A bearish framework from Citi analysts predicts that the Bitcoin price will fall to $78,500 within the next twelve months.
Fundstrat’s internal view contrasts with Citi’s optimism
Citi’s bullish projections contrast with the more cautious internal outlook recently reported by Fundstrat Global Advisors. Internal discussions within the company warn of a possible drop in the Bitcoin price towards $60,000 to $65,000.
According to an internal note circulated Speaking to clients, Fundstrat’s head of digital asset strategy, Sean Farrell, warned that a further correction could occur in the first half of 2026 as macroeconomic pressures and tighter financial conditions weigh on risky assets.
According to @_FORABTom Lee’s fund, Fundstrat, stated in its latest 2026 cryptocurrency strategy advice to internal clients that a significant correction is expected in the first half of the year, which completely contradicts Tom Lee’s public statements.
The internal report states… pic.twitter.com/HbRoNzr85z
— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) December 20, 2025
The report outlined downside targets that place Bitcoin in the $60,000 to $65,000 range, a level that would represent a 30% decline from the current price range. The same internal framework also predicted that Ethereum would retreat to $1,800 to $2,000, while Solana would fall within a range of $50 to $75.
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This goes against the public stance of Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee, who has publicly taken a bullish stance on the long-term trajectory. and new all-time highs for Ethereum and Bitcoin.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView