Closely followed analyst Benjamin Cowen says Cardano (ADA) is most likely in for an additional decline versus Bitcoin (ADA/BTC) before 2024 comes to an end.
Cowen tells his 889,100 followers on the social media platform
Cowen points out that coinciding with the four-year ADA/BTC pattern is the fact that monetary policy is still relatively restrictive and the US dollar is in the midst of a rally – two typically bearish conditions for risky assets like crypto.
“I think ADA/BTC will see another decline before EOY (year-end) and then rise in 2025.
For comparison, some statistics are shown…
November 2020 low: 583 sats
High November 2020: 995 sats
December 2020 low: 503 sats
November 2024 low: 470 sats
High November 2024: 903 sats (so far)
December 2024 low: ???
If QT (quantitative tightening) were over, I would be more inclined to say that it doesn’t need to fall again (as BTC’s dominance already reached 60% and ADA/BTC went to 470 sats (and my multi-year target was 400 sats ).
But with QT continuing and the DXY (US Dollar Index) rising, I don’t think we can ignore another decline in ADA/BTC before EOY.“
Cowen has the same general view on altcoins in general. He shares a chart that looks at the TOTAL3-USDT chart, which measures the total market capitalization of crypto, excluding Bitcoin, Ethereum (ETH), and stablecoins.
The analyst notes that TOTAL3-USDT vs. Bitcoin is struggling to break through late 2020 levels, suggesting altcoins could still get much weaker.
“Imagine if you can now say that the dominance of BTC (BTC.D) has dropped to 60%.
I’m open to dominance at the top, but my biggest concern in that regard is that ALT/BTC pairs are still far from their historic lows.
Additionally, QT continues, DXY and yields go up, and BTC.D historically goes up in December of the half-lives.”
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Featured image: Shutterstock/Fernando Batista