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Key Takeaways
What is driving the current weakness?
Macro uncertainty and the technology market rout that had spread across BTC and crypto.
What are analyst projections?
QCP Capital predicted that risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, would rise by the end of the year, citing interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
On November 11, Bitcoin [BTC] gave back recovery gains at the start of the week after a $107.5k price rejection, due to a broader tech-driven market crisis and macro uncertainty.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 0.25% on November 12. Lately, BTC has been trading like a Nasdaq beta with a strong positive correlation.
As such, the rest of the altcoin market also reflected BTC’s price drop.
Source: Bloomberg
Overall, crypto market sentiment has remained at “extreme fear” levels, with lows between 20 and 30 since November 4. This was a similar weakness reading compared to that of the first quarter of 2025, before a bottom formed.
Is recovery possible?
At the time of writing, BTC was back at $105,000, with mixed results across the board.
Large caps like Binance coins [BNB] were trading below $1000, while Solana [SOL] was struggling to stay above $160 at the time of writing.
Source: CoinMarketCap
According to crypto trading desk, QCP Capital, the potential end of the US government shutdown has removed short-term risk.
However, potential Fed caution ahead of the December rate decision would impact markets. The company added,
“Private data such as ADP and the NFIB index now carry additional weight in the context of the data blackout, both of which point to softer labor conditions and cautious business sentiment. For the Fed, this reinforces the ‘easing with caution’ narrative in the December FOMC (Dec. 9-10).”
At the time of writing, the market was prices a 36% chance that the Fed would leave rates unchanged at 3.75%-4.00%. In contrast, 63% were betting on another 25bp cut.
Source: FedWatch tool
QCP predicted that a potential rate cut and resilient corporate earnings “could support risk sentiment and BTC through the end of the year.”
That said, ETF inflows have also been mixed lately, leaving BTC still in choppy territory.
Still, regaining $107K and the H2 price range could strengthen the bullish structure for BTC on the price chart.
For ETH, a rise above $3,700 and eventually reaching the November high of $3,900 would boost recovery hopes.
Source: BTC vs ETH price action, TradingView