Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of Doubleline Capital, says that the economic data of the US government now seems to have been largely manufactured.
In a new interview with Bloomberg Television, Gundlach says that data used by the FED for determining rates are full of estimates, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which follows the costs of a basket with goods and Bean reports.
“I feel that this data that comes out will be much less reliable, and this has long been built up. People say that the surveys that are sent to be completed for the job report will only be responded to 60%, and that has risen over time.
The CPI data is also a bit suspected. A few years ago, around 8% of the CPI input prices were estimated. Now it’s 35%. It jumped all the way up. So 35% in the most recent CPI report of inflation -input is just a bit made up, and so people are really starting to worry about the reliability of much of this data. ”
The data from the FED have received a lot of attention lately after the most recent job report has shown that jobs grew last month by only 73,000, short of the expected 100,000, while the task numbers of July and May were drastically revised with a combined 258,000. The revisions have led some to suspect that the US economy suddenly flashes a recession.
Gundlach says that Fed will probably lower the rates during the next meeting in September in view of the banengies, and will make at least one other reduction before the end of the year.
“I think it is a virtual certainty that the Fed will lower rates. And in fact, now, although there are not so many meetings in the year, we are starting to see the market prices of perhaps three tariff reductions this year. I am skeptical about that.
One thing I have been throughout the year is that I think a maximum of two tariff reductions here in 2025.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o60udyvlt2W
Follow us on X, Facebook and Telegram
Don’t miss a beat – Subscribe to get e -mail notifications directly to your inbox
Check price promotion
Surf the Daily Hodl -Mix
Generated image: midjourney