Key Takeaways
Has Bitcoin bottomed out?
Risk appetite among Bitcoin investors remains subdued despite improved on-chain strength.
What’s driving sentiment now?
Whale accumulation and resilient short-term holders argue for a potentially sustainable rally.
Looks like Bitcoin [BTC] holds on to the seasonal tailwind.
Despite the October boom, BTC is still up 1.23% and is only 7% reluctant to recoup all the losses after the crash. This means that previously underwater portfolios are making profits again, with 91% of the BTC delivery now in green.
Additionally, BTC has risen above the short-term holder cost basis (STH, >155 days) for the first time since the crash to $113,000, boosting buyer confidence among those most susceptible to capitulation during the credit crunch.
Source: Glassnode
In short, Bitcoin appears poised to trigger FOMO if this momentum continues.
What supports this view is that whale activity has noticeably increased. On October 26, a single whale collected 2,772 BTC (worth approximately $309 million), bringing the estimated cost base to approximately $111,000.
Together, these dynamics (weak hands realizing profits, STHs showing resilience and whales buying the dip) create the ideal conditions for a ‘sustainable’ move. The question is: has greed returned to the market?
Cautious sentiment lingers among Bitcoin investors
From a broader perspective it seems that market in a holding pattern.
Despite the underlying strength, Bitcoin remains nearly 10% below its all-time high of $126,000. This indicates that investors are proceeding cautiously and opting for measured positioning rather than aggressive dip buying.
Meanwhile, the Fear and Greed Index reflects this cautious tone. Since the crash, the index has risen just two points, leaving the market in a neutral zone and indicating that risk appetite among bulls is still subdued.
Source: CoinMarketCap
In this context, it may still be premature to call a Bitcoin bottom.
But now that whale numbers are piling up and statistics within the chain are stabilizing, the foundation for BTC’s next step may already be in place. As momentum picks up, caution can quickly turn to conviction for a sustained run.
On the other hand, that same caution could just as easily turn into capitulation. So for now, Bitcoin is at a major inflection point, making it a “risky” trade for those looking to take the next step.