Europe’s crypto rulebook is putting pressure on much of the industry before it has even had full effect, with Binance and Tether the most visible examples of a broader struggle to stay within the bloc’s regulated market.
Pressure is mounting ahead of the July 1 deadline for companies to obtain authorization under the European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets regulation, known as MiCA.
Alex Obchakevich of Obchakevich Research said only 194 of the more than 3,000 crypto companies operating in Europe have been licensed, leaving exchanges, brokers and wallet providers at risk of losing access to EU users once the transition period ends.
Obchakevich said 60% of European crypto users still rely on unlicensed platforms, while 7.6 million of the region’s 18.5 million recent app downloads came from unlicensed companies.
That raises the prospect that the deadline could disrupt crypto access for millions of users before compliant alternatives have fully absorbed the market.
The pressure also comes as the European Central Bank puts pressure on lawmakers to advance the legal framework for a digital euro.
That timing has made MiCA more than a licensing exercise, as regulations begin to determine which companies can distribute digital assets across Europe, which stablecoins can circulate in regulated locations and how much leeway private crypto companies will have before a public alternative to digital money comes to market.
Binance’s European MiCA route is getting narrower
Binance’s MiCA strategy focused on Greece, where the exchange applied for a license earlier this year after establishing a local holding company in Athens.
An approval would have allowed the company to use the bloc’s passport system to serve customers in all 27 EU member states from a single regulatory base.
However, that route now appears to be in danger.
Reuters reported that Greece’s Capital Markets Commission is preparing to reject Binance’s application, citing people familiar with the matter. If the decision is confirmed, it would leave Binance without a clear MiCA authorization just days before the July 1 deadline.
The reported setback has attracted wider attention amid claims that the decision may have gone beyond a standard supervisory review.
Gareth Jenkinson, head of multimedia at The Block, said he was told that ECB President Christine Lagarde intervened after Greek regulators effectively completed their review of Binance’s application. Neither the ECB nor the Greek authorities have confirmed this story.
Even without official confirmation, the claim has added to the industry debate over the extent to which the European crypto licensing process is shaped by broader priorities around monetary and financial balance as MiCA comes into full effect.
Despite the situation, Binance has maintained that its European strategy remains intact. Co-director Richard Teng said The company remains committed to obtaining MiCA authorization and continuing operations under what it described as a “clear, fair and harmonized” regulatory framework.
According to The Big Whale, the company is now exploring an alternative path through France. The exchange already has registration as a digital asset service provider with the French market regulator, allowing limited activities such as custody and spot trading. A full MiCA license there would restore the ability to operate under the same passport framework across the bloc.
USDT withdraws from EU licensed locations
On the other hand, Tether, the largest stablecoin issuer, is facing a separate but related MiCA problem.
The EU framework requires issuers of fiat-backed stablecoins to register as electronic money institutions and comply with reserve, governance and disclosure rules.
Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino has repeatedly criticized these requirements, especially the rules governing how reserves should be held, and has said the company has no plans to seek EU approval for now.
That decision has already changed the market structure for European users.
Major exchanges including Binance, Coinbase, Kraken, OKX, Bitstamp and Crypto.com have removed or restricted USDT for EU customers. Circle’s USDC, on the other hand, has achieved MiCA compliance, making it the only major dollar-backed stablecoin to be widely available on licensed EU platforms well before the deadline.
However, Tether has not completely left Europe.
The company invested in Dutch fintech Quantoz to support the launch of EURQ and USDQ, stablecoins designed to comply with European regulations. Quantoz operates under the supervision of the Dutch Central Bank and the tokens are structured as e-money products.
The move gives Tether a regulated foothold in Europe, even as USDT, its core product, becomes more difficult to access through licensed locations.
The shift also reinforces a broader point for policymakers. Europe isn’t just asking stablecoin issuers to follow new rules. It forces the market to decide whether liquidity should remain concentrated in offshore dollar tokens or move to regulated issuers operating within the bloc.
The digital euro gives the dispute a larger context
The push from Binance and Tether comes as the ECB continues to advocate for a digital euro, a central bank-issued digital currency intended to complement cash and strengthen European payment sovereignty.
Lagarde has repeatedly urged lawmakers to speed up the project, describing it as important for Europe’s monetary autonomy.
Piero Cipollone, member of the ECB Executive Board, recently told the European Parliament that the digital euro could support innovation, reduce payment fragmentation and improve resilience in an uncertain global environment.
The ECB says a pilot could start in 2027 if legislation is passed in 2026. The Eurosystem could then be ready for a possible first issuance in 2029.
That timetable places Europe in a transition period. The digital euro will take years to arrive, but the private digital money market is now being reformed.
The ECB’s April 2026 Macroprudential Bulletin showed that euro-denominated stablecoins had grown to around €450 million in January, up from €50 million two years earlier. Dollar-denominated stablecoins, by comparison, were close to $300 billion.
The gap explains why European officials are sensitive to the growth of stablecoins. Much of crypto liquidity still flows through dollar-pegged tokens issued outside the eurozone.
For the ECB, this raises questions about monetary control, financial stability and dependence on non-European payment rails.
Binance is close to the center of that system because major exchanges distribute stablecoins, set liquidity conditions and determine which assets European users can access. Tether, on the other hand, stands as the dominant private dollar instrument used in crypto markets.
That combination makes the MiCA deadline a test of Europe’s favorite digital money order before the digital euro is ready.
The European crypto market is entering a narrower phase
The July 1 deadline could leave European users with fewer global platforms, fewer stablecoin options and a clearer divide between regulated and unregulated crypto services.
For Binance, the immediate question is whether France can provide a viable path if Greece rejects its application. For Tether, the question is whether USDT can remain relevant to European users after it disappears from licensed locations in the region.
For the ECB, this moment strengthens the arguments for an alternative to sovereign digital money.
Measuring the broader outcome could take years. MiCA gives Europe a handbook before the digital euro arrives. That rulebook already determines which private companies can operate on a large scale.
By the time the ECB is ready to issue a digital euro, the European crypto sector could already be built around a smaller group of licensed exchanges, compliant stablecoin issuers and payment companies that operate closer to the traditional financial system.
That would mark a major break with the offshore market structure that defined crypto’s first decade and give Europe more control over the rails through which digital money moves.