In recent months, the asset has followed macro developments more closely, with US economic data driving sentiment in risk markets.
While Bitcoin [BTC] continues to hover around $80,000 and geopolitical tensions have subsided, attention has shifted to the bond market.
US 2-year Treasury yields are now showing early signs of strength, raising concerns about tightening financial conditions.
Rising interest rates revive the sense of risk
Two-year yields are starting to form a head-and-shoulders pattern: a technical structure that often precedes upside breakouts.
If this move is confirmed, yields could rise above the 4% threshold, with room for further upside potential. Higher returns typically reflect tighter liquidity and increased economic risk, conditions that often weigh on risky assets, including Bitcoin.
The underlying factors persist as inflationary pressures continue to rise, increasing the likelihood of prolonged higher interest rates.
US inflation rose to 3.3% in March, the highest level since May 2024, while the Federal Reserve held rates steady at 3.75% at its latest meeting.
This backdrop has prompted investors to take a more defensive stance. Capital rotation away from risky assets has intensified as higher returns increase the opportunity cost of holding volatile instruments like Bitcoin.
Correlation weakens the downward pressure
Despite the macroeconomic headwinds, Bitcoin’s exposure to rising interest rates remains limited.
Current data shows a 39% correlation between Bitcoin and bond yields, leaving a significant degree of independence in price movements. This suggests that while higher yields may exert pressure, they are unlikely to fully determine the direction.
In fact, Bitcoin retains room to extend gains if demand continues, and its trajectory now depends on whether buying momentum can offset macro-driven weakness.
So far, market behavior indicates that US investors continue to support demand for Bitcoin.
The Coinbase Premium Index, which measures Bitcoin trading activity in the US, shows that US investors are still willing to pay a premium compared to global markets.
At the time of publication, the index remained around 0.031, reflecting continued buying pressure over the past week.
Importantly, bond yields have not yet confirmed a breakout to the upside, leaving room for further accumulation in the near term.
US demand remains an important pillar
At the institutional level, there are Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). included continued influx. Investors recorded nine consecutive days of net buying, culminating in a weekly high of about $823 million in inflows on April 24.
However, signs of moderation are beginning to emerge as daily inflows fell sharply to $14.45 million on the same day, suggesting some participants may be reducing their exposure to higher levels.
On the one hand, continued demand – especially from US investors – continues to provide support. On the other hand, rising bond yields threaten to tighten liquidity and shift sentiment towards risk aversion.
Until yields confirm a break above 4%, the market will remain in a holding pattern. However, a decisive move higher could amplify the macroeconomic headwinds and test Bitcoin’s current structure.