Bitcoin [BTC] is not quite ready yet.
Although long-term cycle projections point to a potential peak at present, liquidity conditions remain supportive. At the same time, the risk changes hands instead of leaving the market.
What’s next?
Liquidity trends challenge the early cycle peak
It is widely believed that Bitcoin’s cycle could peak around early 2026, but these views are largely based on past patterns. Things look different at the moment, with no clear signs that global liquidity will decline in the coming months.
Source:
Conditions instead stay supportive, which has contributed to the risk of assets like Bitcoin so far [BTC] perform well. Notably, the Global Liquidity Index has reached a new high for this cycle, meaning monetary conditions continue to increase.
Markets don’t always follow set timelines, and Bitcoin has often moved with changes in liquidity.
Ergo, the likelihood that Bitcoin will see a positive price seems much higher than a cycle top.
Now that this is happening…
…here’s how Bitcoin is handling this phase of the cycle.
Looking at the realized price per UTXO age category, the risk is redistributed.
STHs are making a comfortable profit, with their realized prices below the Spot level, almost $95,500. That means recent buyers aren’t under pressure, reducing the likelihood of fear.
Source: CryptoQuant
Actually, they are the medium-term holders who bear the weight of the world. Both the 3 to 6 month and 6 to 12 month cohorts are underwater, but it appears the losses are being absorbed with patience.
From a price POV
Bitcoin takes a while. At the time of writing, BTC was close to $95,000 after a strong recovery from the $91,000-$92,000 demand zone. This is a level that is given strength by visible volume support on the chart. That area is now a major downside cushion.
Source: TradingView
On the upside, $97,000-$98,000 provided immediate resistance, while recent attempts stalled. The RSI remained above 60 while the MACD was positive, although momentum has waned slightly.
It looks like BTC is consolidating, and if it stays above $95,000, a push is on the table.
Final thoughts
- Bitcoin traders are bullish as global liquidity reaches new cycle highs with minimal pressure.
- With BTC holding over $95,000, the risk appears to have been redistributed. The upside possibilities are great.