Bitcoin (BTC) is in a precarious phase below the psychological level of $100,000 while the supply of profits just crashed to a new low in 2025. Amid this decline, Glassnode analysts Chris Beamish, Antoine Colpaert and CryptoVizArt highlight a complex interplay of structural weakness, cautious investor behavior and reduced institutional demand. Bitcoin also remains oversold; however, it has yet to fully capitulate. This indicates that the price is vulnerable, but not broken, and is teetering between recovery and the risk of a deeper decline.
Bitcoin Supply in Earnings Crash Signals Weak Demand and Price
The supply of Bitcoin in profit has fallen sharply, reaching 2025 lows and reflecting the broader slowdown in market momentum. Analysts at Glassnode note that this decline signals declining demand continued selling pressure while the BTC price is consolidating near $100,000, after a 21% decline from its all-time high above $126,000.
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According to the report, roughly 71% of Bitcoin’s supply remains profitable, near the lower end of the typical 70% – 90% range seen in mid-cycle slowdowns. This decline marks the lowest probability level of the year, suggesting that Price stability and recovery of BTC This may depend on whether fresh demand can return to the market in the coming weeks.
The analysis also showed that Bitcoin has broken below the line Cost basis for short-term holders from around $112,500, and is now struggling to recover, confirming that the previous bullish phase is over. They say the market has failed to regain solid footing since the crisis October 10 flash crash and resetwith prices hovering just above the active investor’s realized price at $88,500.
Moreover, data about the chain shows that long-term holders contribute to the bearish pressure. Since July, Bitcoin’s total supply has fallen from 14.7 million BTC to 14.4 million BTC, representing a net reduction of approximately 300,000 coins. Analysts at Glassnode estimate that approximately 2.4 million BTC was issued during this period, which is approximately 12% of the total Bitcoin supply. circulating supply.
Unlike earlier in the market cycle, these long-term holders now are sell in weakness rather than strength, indicating fatigue and reduced sentiment, likely due to continued market declines. While the relative unrealized loss remains moderate at 3.1%, Glassnode analysts emphasize that the combination of declining profitability and stable long term distribution leaves the Bitcoin price in a vulnerable position near $100,000.
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ETF outflows and unstable derivatives increase market caution
In addition to the decline in Bitcoin’s profit supply, off-chain indicators also point to caution. Analysts at Glassnode are taking notice US Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen net outflows of between $150 million and $700 million per day over the past two weeks, driving strong inflow series from September and early October. This slowdown reflects a significant decline in institutional interest, with capital disappearing from Bitcoin exposure as the price falls.
Bitcoin’s Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) has also turned negative for Binance and major exchanges. In derivativesAnalysts noted that the Perpetual Market Directional Premium fell to $118 million per month from $338 million in April, indicating that traders are pulling back their risk and avoiding aggressive long positions.
For now, Bitcoin remains in a delicate position, but oversold structurally intact. Glassnode experts have stated that the next major test lies at $112,000 and $113,000, where a sustained recovery would indicate renewed demand, while further weakness could lead to a surge in demand. deepen the correction.
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com