Market analyst Ali Martinez highlights a recent development on the Bitcoin 3-day chart with significant bearish implications. The leading cryptocurrency is still trading just below the $70,000 mark following the temporary breakout earlier this week. Bitcoin has now spent an overwhelming majority of the past month within the $60,000 – $70,000 price range, after prices crashed to a new market low in late January/early February amid the extended bearish season.
Bitcoin ready for another leg down?
In one X message on March 6, Martinez shares an important macro insight on the Bitcoin price trajectory using historical data from the 3-day trading chart. The seasoned analyst explains that the formation of a particular death cross consistently preceded the final price decline in the market cycle. In general, the death cross represents a bearish technical indicator where a short-term moving average falls below the long-term moving average, indicating that recent price momentum has weakened relative to the longer-term trend, and there is increasing selling pressure coupled with a potential long-term downturn.
The common version of the death cross appears when the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average, and is a key bearish indicator in the Bitcoin market, according to observations shared by Martinez. Notably, in 2013, Bitcoin had crashed 72% before the 50/200 SMA death cross appeared. The market leader then recorded another 52% price drop before reaching a price bottom.
Bitcoin $BTC The three-day chart has been one of the most important time frames from a macro perspective.
What matters most to me in this time frame is the interaction between the 50 and 200 simple moving averages.
— Ali Charts (@alicharts) March 6, 2026
A similar pattern is observed in 2017, when Bitcoin fell 67% from its market peak before the appearance of the death cross, causing an additional 50% crash. Before the last market cycle, the 50/200 SMA death cross appeared in May 2022, when Bitcoin prominently fell 58% from its cycle top. After that, BTC investors would experience another 46% devaluation.
According to data from CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin is currently down 45.62% from the current cycle high of $126,100, following an extended bearish phase that has lasted since October. It is notable that the price movement has also struck another death cross on the 3-day chart, indicating that a potentially major downside could occur based on precedents. In this case, Bitcoin could fall by another 49% on average to reach a potential bottom around $33,500. However, Martinez cautions that this price build-up does not provide a bearish guarantee, just a historical alignment with macro bottom formations.
Bitcoin price overview
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $68,235, having dropped 4.21% in the past 24 hours. After the recent positive price action, the first cryptocurrency has risen 3.59% on the weekly chart. However, Bitcoin remains far from a bullish reversal, as evidenced by the current losses of 4.49% on the monthly chart.