A key price point is causing Bitcoin problems – and on-chain data could explain why.
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Realized price puts a ceiling on the rally
The amount of $75,000 is not just a round number Bitcoin traders. It is in the lower band of what analysts call traders’ “on-chain realized price” – a measure that tracks the average price at which active market participants last moved their coins.
According to CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno, that band has historically acted as a ceiling during bear markets, and now appears to be doing the same.
Bitcoin tested the $75,000 level on Coinbase three times within a 24-hour period and was reversed each time.
The rally itself was real. Bitcoin climbed about 12% in March, hitting a six-week high of about $76,000 on March 17. But the momentum has stalled exactly where analysts warned.
Large deposits are flowing to the stock exchanges
What makes the stall more important is what happens behind the scenes. On March 16, hourly Bitcoin inflows to centralized exchanges rose to 6,100 BTC – the highest one-hour value since February 20.
Data shows that more than 60% of that total consists of large deposits, the largest share since mid-October 2025.
When traders move Bitcoin to exchanges, it usually means one thing: they are getting ready to sell. Moreno said that historically, spikes in large currency deposits have been linked to increasing selling pressure.
The timing – right when Bitcoin encountered resistance – is hard to ignore.
The question now is whether that selling pressure will be enough to push prices back down, or whether buyers will absorb it and break the $75,000 wall.
Fed decision increases market uncertainty
Broader financial circumstances add an extra layer of complexity. The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday, and based on CME futures, traders estimate a 98.9% chance of rates staying where they are – with just a 1.1% chance of a rise.
But keeping rates stable may not be the most market-moving part of the announcement. Reports show that Federal Reserve could indicate that there will be no rate cuts at all in 2026, given the continued rate cuts inflation concerns and consequences of the war between the US and Iran. That kind of guidance tends to burden risky assets.
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The harder wall still lies ahead
Even if Bitcoin manages to clear $75,000 with enough conviction to hold on, there’s another obstacle waiting higher up.
The full realized price – which reflects the average breakeven level for active traders – is currently around $84,700. That figure acted as resistance in both October and January.
Freeing up $75,000 would be a start. Reaching $84,700 would be a completely different challenge.
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