There is war raging all over the world Middle East. Oil prices are rising. Stock markets in Asia have taken a hit. And yet, Bitcoin is still above $66,000 – a fact that has caught the attention of analysts who keep a close eye on the market.
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Calm where there should be panic
The group most closely watched during moments of market stress are what analysts call short-term holders: people who have recently purchased Bitcoin and are most likely to sell quickly if something goes wrong.
Based on reports from the on-chain data platform CryptoQuant, that group has remained unusually quiet. When Bitcoin reached the $63,000 to $64,000 mark on February 28, the currency inflows from recent buyers barely moved. No major sales wave followed. No spike in the number of coins sent to the exchanges at a loss.
That was not the case earlier in February. Reports say that on February 5 and 6, short-term holders sent 89,000 BTC to exchanges at a loss within a single 24-hour window. It was a definite panic event. Since then, these types of loss-driven transfers have steadily declined – and the escalation in Iran has failed to reverse that trend.
CryptoQuant analyst Moreno, who wrote the factssays this matters because markets tend to find their footing once the most nervous sellers have already left.
If currency inflows from short-term holders remain low, it could signal seller exhaustion and pave the way for a price recovery. However, a sudden jump in that inflow would indicate that the sale has not yet been completed.
What history says about war and Bitcoin
This is not the first time Bitcoin has been tested by armed conflict. According to market analyst Ted Pillows, the pattern has occurred twice before.
When Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Bitcoin fell and then rose 40%. When Israel struck Iran in June 2025, Bitcoin fell again before gaining 25%.
February 2022: Russia attacks Ukraine.
▫️ $BTC first dumped and then up 40%.
June 2025: Israel attacks Iran.
▫️Bitcoin first dumped and then rose 25%.
February 2026: US attacks Iran.
Will a similar pattern follow again? pic.twitter.com/b8FLF4aR9p
— Ted (@TedPillows) February 28, 2026
Now, after the joint US-Israeli attacks on Iran in February 2026, Bitcoin has retreated again. Pillows now wonders if that same rebound pattern could follow a third time.
The current conflict is much bigger than those previous flashpoints. Reports say US-Israeli forces struck more than 2,000 targets in 131 Iranian cities and provinces, hitting nuclear sites, missile systems and senior military figures including Iran’s Supreme Leader.
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Bitcoin price action
Iran fired back with missiles and drones aimed at it IsraelAmerican bases and several Gulf states. The war has engulfed Lebanon, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Cyprus and a British military base.
Bitcoin has fallen 3.5% since February 26, bringing the price to $65,540. On February 28, the price briefly reached $63,030 before rising back above $65,000.
Given the magnitude of what’s happening on the ground, that kind of price movement is relatively limited.
Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView